Sha Tin · 2021-01-24
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-24 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. STIMULATION, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with ABOVE second and AWE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 6.2 favourite NATURAL STORM finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT 2.02.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 3 | 14.0 | N |
| 2 | 13 | ABOVE Closed strongly B K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 4 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 10 | AWE Closed strongly XB2 M F Poon · D A Hayes | M F Poon | D A Hayes | 8 | 22.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | VINCY Closed strongly V/XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 9 | 9.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 14 | 9.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | ARROGANT B/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 5 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | BLASTOISE Led early SR Z Purton · D E Ferraris | Z Purton | D E Ferraris | 1 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 12 | 6.2 | 4 |
| 10 | 4 | HAPPY MY BROTHER B/TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 2 | 7.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | CLEMENT LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 13 | 30.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | CHAMPION SUPREME B T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 10 | 39.0 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | ENTRUSTED A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 7 | 9.2 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 1 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD C Soumillon · C H Yip | C Soumillon | C H Yip | 11 | 6.7 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | NATURAL STORM | 19.2% | 5.20 | 9 |
| 2 | 3 | ENRICHMENT | 14.6% | 6.86 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | VINCY | 9.9% | 10.10 | 4 |
| 4 | 13 | ABOVE | 8.8% | 11.41 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD | 7.7% | 12.91 | 14 |
| 6 | 14 | STIMULATION | 7.4% | 13.56 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | BLASTOISE | 6.4% | 15.66 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | HAPPY MY BROTHER | 5.1% | 19.80 | 10 |
| 9 | 9 | FLYING MIGHTY | 4.8% | 20.75 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | CLEMENT LEGEND | 4.6% | 21.81 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | AWE | 3.7% | 26.85 | 3 |
| 12 | 11 | ENTRUSTED | 3.2% | 31.36 | 13 |
| 13 | 2 | CHAMPION SUPREME | 2.7% | 36.38 | 12 |
| 14 | 5 | ARROGANT | 1.9% | 52.26 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
14 141
PLACE
10 71.5
13 26
14 47
QUINELLA
13,14 657
QUINELLA PLACE
10,13 394.5
10,14 429.5
13,14 204
FORECAST
14,13 1,590
TIERCE
14,13,10 21,115
TRIO
10,13,14 4,520
FIRST 4
7,10,13,14 13,480
QUARTET
14,13,10,7 279,560
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 30
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
1/13 70
1/14 339.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,5,9/1,7,11/Any Combination 538,176