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Sha Tin · 2021-01-24

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SEA OF LIFE Closed strongly V 1.22.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 8.1 N
2 0 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 11.0 N
3 0 FLAGSHIP GLORY Closed strongly J Moreira · F C Lor 13 16.0 1-1/4
4 0 SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB K Teetan · A T Millard 4 16.0 1-1/4
5 0 DIAMOND BRILLIANT Led early TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 12 68.0 1-3/4
6 0 BELUGA Closed strongly H Z Purton · D J Hall 14 3.5 1-3/4
7 0 JUNEAU PARK A Badel · J Size 3 6.3 2
8 0 CRAIG'S STAR B C Soumillon · C S Shum 10 5.8 2-3/4
9 0 E STAR H2 N Callan · K L Man 2 12.0 3-1/2
10 0 STAR PERFORMANCE Closed strongly TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 9 14.0 3-3/4
11 0 HARMONY WIN WIN XB1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 6 50.0 3-3/4
12 0 PERFECT PAIR SR H N Wong · K H Ting 11 89.0 4-1/4
13 0 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 131.0 4-3/4
14 0 GREEN REIGN C Schofield · C Fownes 8 15.0 5-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-24 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SEA OF LIFE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with PRIME MINISTER second and FLAGSHIP GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite BELUGA finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEA OF LIFE—2. PRIME MINISTER+0.05L3. FLAGSHIP GLORY+1.25L4. SACRED IBIS+1.25L5. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+1.75L6. BELUGA+1.75L7. JUNEAU PARK+2L8. CRAIG'S STAR+2.75L9. E STAR+3.5L10. STAR PERFORMANCE+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BELUGA (22.2%) finished 6th — the winner SEA OF LIFE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BELUGA 22.2% 4.50 6
2 0 FLAGSHIP GLORY 20.5% 4.87 3
3 0 JUNEAU PARK 13.5% 7.41 7
4 0 SEA OF LIFE 6.9% 14.45 1
5 0 CRAIG'S STAR 6.4% 15.67 8
6 0 E STAR 6.1% 16.36 9
7 0 SACRED IBIS 5.9% 17.03 4
8 0 HARMONY WIN WIN 3.9% 25.42 11
9 0 GREEN REIGN 3.7% 26.99 14
10 0 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 3.3% 30.12 5
11 0 STAR PERFORMANCE 2.7% 36.43 10
12 0 PRIME MINISTER 2.5% 40.07 2
13 0 PERFECT PAIR 1.5% 66.07 12
14 0 FANTASTIC SHOW 0.7% 137.30 13
BELUGAFLAGSHIP GLORYJUNEAU PARKSEA OF LIFE — wonCRAIG'S STARE STARSACRED IBISHARMONY WIN WINGREEN REIGNDIAMOND BRILLIANTSTAR PERFORMANCEPRIME MINISTERPERFECT PAIRFANTASTIC SHOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 81

PLACE

2 29.5

5 58.5

9 35.5

QUINELLA

2,9 556

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 179

2,9 188.5

5,9 369

FORECAST

2,9 823

TIERCE

2,9,5 15,280

TRIO

2,5,9 2,382

FIRST 4

2,5,6,9 7,213

QUARTET

2,9,5,6 174,226

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,14/2,5,9 125,952

3 PICK 1

A2 17

A3 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

7/2 248.5

7/9 70