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Sha Tin · 2021-01-24

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-24 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SEA OF LIFE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with PRIME MINISTER second and FLAGSHIP GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite BELUGA finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.22.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SEA OF LIFE Closed strongly V 1.22.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 8.1 N
2 9 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 11.0 N
3 5 FLAGSHIP GLORY Closed strongly J Moreira · F C Lor 13 16.0 1-1/4
4 6 SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB K Teetan · A T Millard 4 16.0 1-1/4
5 13 DIAMOND BRILLIANT Led early TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 12 68.0 1-3/4
6 11 BELUGA Closed strongly H Z Purton · D J Hall 14 3.5 1-3/4
7 8 JUNEAU PARK A Badel · J Size 3 6.3 2
8 4 CRAIG'S STAR B C Soumillon · C S Shum 10 5.8 2-3/4
9 1 E STAR H2 N Callan · K L Man 2 12.0 3-1/2
10 3 STAR PERFORMANCE Closed strongly TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 9 14.0 3-3/4
11 10 HARMONY WIN WIN XB1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 6 50.0 3-3/4
12 14 PERFECT PAIR SR H N Wong · K H Ting 11 89.0 4-1/4
13 7 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 131.0 4-3/4
14 12 GREEN REIGN C Schofield · C Fownes 8 15.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEA OF LIFE2. PRIME MINISTER+0.05L3. FLAGSHIP GLORY+1.25L4. SACRED IBIS+1.25L5. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+1.75L6. BELUGA+1.75L7. JUNEAU PARK+2L8. CRAIG'S STAR+2.75L9. E STAR+3.5L10. STAR PERFORMANCE+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BELUGA (22.2%) finished 6th — the winner SEA OF LIFE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 BELUGA 22.2% 4.50 6
2 5 FLAGSHIP GLORY 20.5% 4.87 3
3 8 JUNEAU PARK 13.5% 7.41 7
4 2 SEA OF LIFE 6.9% 14.45 1
5 4 CRAIG'S STAR 6.4% 15.67 8
6 1 E STAR 6.1% 16.36 9
7 6 SACRED IBIS 5.9% 17.03 4
8 10 HARMONY WIN WIN 3.9% 25.42 11
9 12 GREEN REIGN 3.7% 26.99 14
10 13 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 3.3% 30.12 5
11 3 STAR PERFORMANCE 2.7% 36.43 10
12 9 PRIME MINISTER 2.5% 40.07 2
13 14 PERFECT PAIR 1.5% 66.07 12
14 7 FANTASTIC SHOW 0.7% 137.30 13
BELUGAFLAGSHIP GLORYJUNEAU PARKSEA OF LIFE — wonCRAIG'S STARE STARSACRED IBISHARMONY WIN WINGREEN REIGNDIAMOND BRILLIANTSTAR PERFORMANCEPRIME MINISTERPERFECT PAIRFANTASTIC SHOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 81

PLACE

2 29.5

5 58.5

9 35.5

QUINELLA

2,9 556

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 179

2,9 188.5

5,9 369

FORECAST

2,9 823

TIERCE

2,9,5 15,280

TRIO

2,5,9 2,382

FIRST 4

2,5,6,9 7,213

QUARTET

2,9,5,6 174,226

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,14/2,5,9 125,952

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 17

A3

3RD DOUBLE

7/2 248.5

7/9 70