沙田 · 2021-02-06
第 10場
2021-02-06沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K H Ting訓練的MY SUGAR勝出，贏出1。SILVER EXPRESS獲得亞軍；ROMANTIC COMBO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | MY SUGAR 後段發力 CP 1.21.65 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 1 | 2.8 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | SILVER EXPRESS 早段領放 K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 9 | 5.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | ROMANTIC COMBO 後段發力 B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 2 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | XIANG YIN 後段發力 TT A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 10 | 37.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | FLYING SWORD CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 20.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | COMPASSION SPIRIT CP-/B1 M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 4 | 51.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | TAKING AIM H2 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 11 | 51.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | SO WE JOY 後段發力 CP A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 12 | 47.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | THE HULK V K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 6 | 11.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | SPARKY TRAIL 後段發力 V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 13 | 212.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | JOLLY HONOUR B/TT- H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 7 | 173.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 6 | ISLAND SHINE CP-/B2/TT2 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 8 | 28.0 | 12-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | ROMANTIC COMBO | 31.8% | 3.15 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | MY SUGAR | 30.4% | 3.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | THE HULK | 8.1% | 12.40 | 10 |
| 4 | 1 | SILVER EXPRESS | 5.6% | 17.90 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | FLYING SWORD | 5.0% | 20.12 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | TAKING AIM | 3.9% | 25.53 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | XIANG YIN | 3.6% | 27.86 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 2.3% | 43.26 | 6 |
| 9 | 13 | SO WE JOY | 2.2% | 46.23 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | ISLAND SHINE | 2.2% | 46.43 | 13 |
| 11 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 2.1% | 46.93 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | SPARKY TRAIL | 1.9% | 51.77 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | JOLLY HONOUR | 1.0% | 95.93 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 28.5
PLACE
1 18
11 12.5
12 13
QUINELLA
1,11 79
QUINELLA PLACE
1,11 33.5
1,12 34.5
11,12 17.5
FORECAST
11,1 177
TIERCE
11,1,12 359
TRIO
1,11,12 55
FIRST 4
1,8,11,12 444
QUARTET
11,1,12,8 6,922
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,8/1,11,12 3,774
9TH DOUBLE
5/1 86.5
5/11 294
SIX UP
7/3/3/4/5/11 3,540,466
7,10/3,5/3,7/1,4/5,8/1,11 5,314
10/3/3/4/5/11 3,540,466
6 [K C Leung] —
TREBLE
4/5/1 1,734
4/5/11 7,292