沙田 · 2021-02-06
第 5場
2021-02-06沙田第5場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由J Moreira策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的DRAGON COMMANDER勝出，贏出DH。FAIRY FLOSS獲得亞軍；TREASURE CHEST獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.9倍大熱門TREASURE CHEST跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | DRAGON COMMANDER 後段發力 B 1.39.05 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 13 | 5.4 | DH |
| 1 | 10 | FAIRY FLOSS 後段發力 CP/H 1.39.05 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 14 | 8.3 | DH |
| 3 | 4 | TREASURE CHEST B/XB N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 3 | 4.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | PROUD SKY 後段發力 V H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 5 | 22.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | GOLDEN GENERAL 後段發力 XB-/SR1 M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 8 | 74.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | GENERAL DINO 後段發力 A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 10 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 14 | KEEP WINNING 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 40.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | BRAVERY AND POWER TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 4 | 19.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SWEETLY BABY V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 5.4 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | KA YING BRILLIANCE P-/H/XB/V2 K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 12 | 45.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | SPEED FORCE XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 13.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | JADE THEATRE B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 11 | 19.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 7 | 120.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE 早段領放 H/CP1/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 2 | 7.6 | 13-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 16.4% | 6.11 | 14 |
| 2 | 4 | TREASURE CHEST | 14.7% | 6.80 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 11.5% | 8.72 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | SPEED FORCE | 9.9% | 10.09 | 11 |
| 5 | 1 | JADE THEATRE | 8.0% | 12.46 | 12 |
| 6 | 2 | SWEETLY BABY | 7.9% | 12.65 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | GENERAL DINO | 7.3% | 13.67 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | FAIRY FLOSS | 4.8% | 20.74 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 4.3% | 23.08 | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | PROUD SKY | 4.2% | 23.92 | 4 |
| 11 | 13 | BRAVERY AND POWER | 4.0% | 25.23 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | GOLDEN GENERAL | 3.2% | 31.61 | 5 |
| 13 | 14 | KEEP WINNING | 2.4% | 42.41 | 7 |
| 14 | 3 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS | 1.5% | 67.21 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 27
10 41.5
PLACE
4 17.5
7 20.5
10 32.5
QUINELLA
7,10 225.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 48.5
4,10 67
7,10 85.5
FORECAST
7,10 195
10,7 279
TIERCE
7,10,4 954
10,7,4 1,047
TRIO
4,7,10 240
FIRST 4
4,7,10,11 1,532
QUARTET
7,10,4,11 15,365
10,7,4,11 19,257
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 11.5
A3 10.5
4TH DOUBLE
6/7 205.5
6/10 241