跑馬地 · 2021-02-24
第 9場
2021-02-24跑馬地第9場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的GREEN LUCK勝出，贏出2-1/2。TSAR獲得亞軍；INCANTO PREPARED獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GREEN LUCK 後段發力 1.39.16 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 3.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | TSAR 後段發力 H1 T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 12 | 103.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | INCANTO PREPARED 後段發力 E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 6 | 6.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | BEAR AGAIN 早段領放 SR B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 4 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | CELESTIAL POWER 後段發力 V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 7 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 1 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | ALPHA HEDGE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | FLYING SWORD 後段發力 CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 10 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | CINQUANTE CINQ 後段發力 M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 8 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | HIGH REV B/XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 6.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | TASHIDELEK B A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 11 | 12.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | REEL BIZZY B K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 9 | 32.0 | 6-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GREEN LUCK | 21.6% | 4.64 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | HIGH REV | 16.6% | 6.02 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | INCANTO PREPARED | 15.5% | 6.44 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | TASHIDELEK | 11.6% | 8.64 | 11 |
| 5 | 3 | CELESTIAL POWER | 9.8% | 10.18 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | REEL BIZZY | 5.2% | 19.42 | 12 |
| 7 | 6 | ALPHA HEDGE | 4.8% | 20.63 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 4.5% | 22.37 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | CINQUANTE CINQ | 3.8% | 26.29 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | FLYING SWORD | 3.4% | 29.77 | 8 |
| 11 | 4 | BEAR AGAIN | 2.7% | 36.95 | 4 |
| 12 | 5 | TSAR | 0.6% | 175.85 | 2 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 37.5
PLACE
2 17
5 223
11 22
QUINELLA
2,5 2,501.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 763
2,11 55.5
5,11 1,289
FORECAST
2,5 2,372
TIERCE
2,5,11 28,856
TRIO
2,5,11 4,745
FIRST 4
2,4,5,11 14,734
QUARTET
2,5,11,4 270,349
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 23.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,7/2,5,11 325,087
8TH DOUBLE
4/2 247.5
4/5 1,022.5
SIX UP
1/3/9/3/4/2 243,893
1,7/1,3/2,9/3,12/2,4/2,5 63,121
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
3/4/2 940
3/4/5 6,085