Happy Valley · 2021-02-24
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-24 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GREEN LUCK, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/2, with TSAR second and INCANTO PREPARED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GREEN LUCK Closed strongly 1.39.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 3.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | TSAR Closed strongly H1 T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 12 | 103.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 6 | 6.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | BEAR AGAIN Led early SR B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 4 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | CELESTIAL POWER Closed strongly V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 7 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 1 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | ALPHA HEDGE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | FLYING SWORD Closed strongly CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 10 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | CINQUANTE CINQ Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 8 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | HIGH REV B/XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 6.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | TASHIDELEK B A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 11 | 12.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | REEL BIZZY B K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 9 | 32.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GREEN LUCK | 21.6% | 4.64 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | HIGH REV | 16.6% | 6.02 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | INCANTO PREPARED | 15.5% | 6.44 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | TASHIDELEK | 11.6% | 8.64 | 11 |
| 5 | 3 | CELESTIAL POWER | 9.8% | 10.18 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | REEL BIZZY | 5.2% | 19.42 | 12 |
| 7 | 6 | ALPHA HEDGE | 4.8% | 20.63 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 4.5% | 22.37 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | CINQUANTE CINQ | 3.8% | 26.29 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | FLYING SWORD | 3.4% | 29.77 | 8 |
| 11 | 4 | BEAR AGAIN | 2.7% | 36.95 | 4 |
| 12 | 5 | TSAR | 0.6% | 175.85 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 37.5
PLACE
2 17
5 223
11 22
QUINELLA
2,5 2,501.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 763
2,11 55.5
5,11 1,289
FORECAST
2,5 2,372
TIERCE
2,5,11 28,856
TRIO
2,5,11 4,745
FIRST 4
2,4,5,11 14,734
QUARTET
2,5,11,4 270,349
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 23.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,7/2,5,11 325,087
8TH DOUBLE
4/2 247.5
4/5 1,022.5
SIX UP
1/3/9/3/4/2 243,893
1,7/1,3/2,9/3,12/2,4/2,5 63,121
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
3/4/2 940
3/4/5 6,085