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Happy Valley · 2021-02-24

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-24 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WONDER WIN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by N, with GOOD DAYS second and FORTUNE PATROL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite GOOD DAYS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.50.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 WONDER WIN Closed strongly 1.50.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho 7 5.9 N
2 1 GOOD DAYS Closed strongly J Moreira · C S Shum 4 3.1 N
3 10 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB M Chadwick · A T Millard 9 10.0 1
4 12 JOY N FUN LEGEND Closed strongly CP-/TT- M L Yeung · T P Yung 3 52.0 1-3/4
5 8 GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B2 T Piccone · R Gibson 10 11.0 2
6 4 RIGHTEOUS WIN Led early V V Borges · P F Yiu 1 10.0 2-3/4
7 6 SHINEALOT B2 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 5 5.2 2-3/4
8 2 GREAT SMART CP/TT A Hamelin · K L Man 8 15.0 5
9 11 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B/H H W Lai · C W Chang 12 28.0 5
10 3 SANGRIA Closed strongly B B Shinn · D E Ferraris 11 11.0 6-1/4
11 7 LUCKY VICTOR TT C Y Ho · K H Ting 6 25.0 7-1/2
12 9 PLANET FLYER B H N Wong · W Y So 2 93.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER WIN2. GOOD DAYS+0.05L3. FORTUNE PATROL+1L4. JOY N FUN LEGEND+1.75L5. GENERAL DINO+2L6. RIGHTEOUS WIN+2.75L7. SHINEALOT+2.75L8. GREAT SMART+5L9. THE JOY OF GIVING+5L10. SANGRIA+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GOOD DAYS (37.7%) finished 2nd — the winner WONDER WIN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GOOD DAYS 37.7% 2.66 2
2 6 SHINEALOT 18.2% 5.49 7
3 5 WONDER WIN 11.1% 9.02 1
4 4 RIGHTEOUS WIN 6.5% 15.49 6
5 10 FORTUNE PATROL 6.4% 15.70 3
6 8 GENERAL DINO 4.5% 22.00 5
7 3 SANGRIA 4.0% 25.16 10
8 2 GREAT SMART 3.8% 26.18 8
9 11 THE JOY OF GIVING 3.6% 28.07 9
10 7 LUCKY VICTOR 2.0% 49.09 11
11 12 JOY N FUN LEGEND 1.4% 71.57 4
12 9 PLANET FLYER 0.9% 111.84 12
GOOD DAYSSHINEALOTWONDER WIN — wonRIGHTEOUS WINFORTUNE PATROLGENERAL DINOSANGRIAGREAT SMARTTHE JOY OF GIVINGLUCKY VICTORJOY N FUN LEGENDPLANET FLYER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 59

PLACE

1 15

5 18.5

10 33.5

QUINELLA

1,5 104.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 41.5

1,10 64

5,10 94

FORECAST

5,1 210

TIERCE

5,1,10 1,395

TRIO

1,5,10 323

FIRST 4

1,5,10,12 4,954

QUARTET

5,1,10,12 65,823

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 28.5

A1