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Happy Valley · 2021-02-24

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.50.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WONDER WIN Closed strongly 1.50.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho 7 5.9 N
2 0 GOOD DAYS Closed strongly J Moreira · C S Shum 4 3.1 N
3 0 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB M Chadwick · A T Millard 9 10.0 1
4 0 JOY N FUN LEGEND Closed strongly CP-/TT- M L Yeung · T P Yung 3 52.0 1-3/4
5 0 GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B2 T Piccone · R Gibson 10 11.0 2
6 0 RIGHTEOUS WIN Led early V V Borges · P F Yiu 1 10.0 2-3/4
7 0 SHINEALOT B2 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 5 5.2 2-3/4
8 0 GREAT SMART CP/TT A Hamelin · K L Man 8 15.0 5
9 0 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B/H H W Lai · C W Chang 12 28.0 5
10 0 SANGRIA Closed strongly B B Shinn · D E Ferraris 11 11.0 6-1/4
11 0 LUCKY VICTOR TT C Y Ho · K H Ting 6 25.0 7-1/2
12 0 PLANET FLYER B H N Wong · W Y So 2 93.0 14

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-24 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WONDER WIN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by N, with GOOD DAYS second and FORTUNE PATROL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite GOOD DAYS finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER WIN—2. GOOD DAYS+0.05L3. FORTUNE PATROL+1L4. JOY N FUN LEGEND+1.75L5. GENERAL DINO+2L6. RIGHTEOUS WIN+2.75L7. SHINEALOT+2.75L8. GREAT SMART+5L9. THE JOY OF GIVING+5L10. SANGRIA+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GOOD DAYS (37.7%) finished 2nd — the winner WONDER WIN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOOD DAYS 37.7% 2.66 2
2 0 SHINEALOT 18.2% 5.49 7
3 0 WONDER WIN 11.1% 9.02 1
4 0 RIGHTEOUS WIN 6.5% 15.49 6
5 0 FORTUNE PATROL 6.4% 15.70 3
6 0 GENERAL DINO 4.5% 22.00 5
7 0 SANGRIA 4.0% 25.16 10
8 0 GREAT SMART 3.8% 26.18 8
9 0 THE JOY OF GIVING 3.6% 28.07 9
10 0 LUCKY VICTOR 2.0% 49.09 11
11 0 JOY N FUN LEGEND 1.4% 71.57 4
12 0 PLANET FLYER 0.9% 111.84 12
GOOD DAYSSHINEALOTWONDER WIN — wonRIGHTEOUS WINFORTUNE PATROLGENERAL DINOSANGRIAGREAT SMARTTHE JOY OF GIVINGLUCKY VICTORJOY N FUN LEGENDPLANET FLYER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 59

PLACE

1 15

5 18.5

10 33.5

QUINELLA

1,5 104.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 41.5

1,10 64

5,10 94

FORECAST

5,1 210

TIERCE

5,1,10 1,395

TRIO

1,5,10 323

FIRST 4

1,5,10,12 4,954

QUARTET

5,1,10,12 65,823

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 28.5