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Happy Valley · 2021-02-24

Race 6

Class 1 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 8 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-24 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SKY FIELD, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with STRONGER second and GRATEFUL HEART third. The 2.8 favourite GRATEFUL HEART finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SKY FIELD TT 1.08.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes 1 3.1 HD
2 2 STRONGER CP/XB/TT C Y Ho · D J Whyte 2 10.0 HD
3 5 GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 2.8 1/2
4 3 BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT J Moreira · J Size 5 3.8 2-3/4
5 6 GOLD CHEST B-/CP2/TT T Piccone · R Gibson 4 31.0 3-3/4
6 1 AMAZING STAR A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 15.0 5
7 7 SHINING ACE B/TT V Borges · J Size 7 29.0 5
8 4 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS K Teetan · C Fownes 6 18.0 6
8 CLASSIC UNICORN K C Leung · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY FIELD2. STRONGER+0.2L3. GRATEFUL HEART+0.5L4. BEAUTY APPLAUSE+2.75L5. GOLD CHEST+3.75L6. AMAZING STAR+5L7. SHINING ACE+5L8. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GRATEFUL HEART (46.2%) finished 3rd — the winner SKY FIELD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 GRATEFUL HEART 46.2% 2.16 3
2 9 SKY FIELD 24.5% 4.08 1
3 3 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 13.6% 7.33 4
4 2 STRONGER 4.3% 23.33 2
5 4 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 4.1% 24.50 8
6 7 SHINING ACE 3.5% 28.60 7
7 6 GOLD CHEST 1.9% 51.72 5
8 1 AMAZING STAR 1.8% 55.08 6
GRATEFUL HEARTSKY FIELD — wonBEAUTY APPLAUSESTRONGEREXPLOSIVE WITNESSSHINING ACEGOLD CHESTAMAZING STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 31

PLACE

2 28

5 12.5

9 12

QUINELLA

2,9 189

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 62.5

2,9 56

5,9 19.5

FORECAST

9,2 341

TIERCE

9,2,5 986

TRIO

2,5,9 139

FIRST 4

2,3,5,9 69

QUARTET

9,2,5,3 2,387

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 21

A3

A1

5TH DOUBLE

3/2 100.5

3/9 387.5