Happy Valley · 2021-02-24
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-24 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HARMONY FIRE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with CANTSTOPTHEFEELING second and MY MY MY third. The 3.0 favourite FORTUNE CARRIER finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HARMONY FIRE XB 0.57.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 11 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 1 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 9 | 14.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | MY MY MY XB K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 3.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | VIVA CHEF B K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 4 | 9.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | INFINITE POWER V- M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 5 | 34.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 6 | 14.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | RAGING BLAZE TT1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | GOUTEN OF GARO B/TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 10 | 60.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT- Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 3.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | TOWARDS SUCCESS H1 A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 3 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | TWINX M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 2 | 105.0 | 18-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MY MY MY | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | RAGING BLAZE | 22.2% | 4.51 | 8 |
| 3 | 8 | FORTUNE CARRIER | 10.9% | 9.20 | 10 |
| 4 | 10 | VIVA CHEF | 8.9% | 11.25 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | HARMONY FIRE | 6.9% | 14.49 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 5.0% | 20.01 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | TOWARDS SUCCESS | 4.9% | 20.21 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING | 4.4% | 22.97 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | TWINX | 3.4% | 29.59 | 12 |
| 10 | 11 | INFINITE POWER | 2.2% | 46.01 | 5 |
| 11 | 7 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 2.0% | 49.62 | 6 |
| 12 | 9 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 1.6% | 62.18 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 101
PLACE
1 29.5
2 15.5
3 29.5
QUINELLA
1,3 480
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 97
1,3 161.5
2,3 69
FORECAST
3,1 782
TIERCE
3,1,2 4,122
TRIO
1,2,3 641
FIRST 4
1,2,3,10 522
QUARTET
3,1,2,10 16,539
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,9/1,2,3 22,569
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 36
4TH DOUBLE
1/1 120
1/3 518