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Happy Valley · 2021-02-24

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-24 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HARMONY FIRE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with CANTSTOPTHEFEELING second and MY MY MY third. The 3.0 favourite FORTUNE CARRIER finished 10th.

Result

Official · 0.57.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HARMONY FIRE XB 0.57.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D J Whyte 11 10.0 N
2 1 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT A Hamelin · K L Man 9 14.0 N
3 2 MY MY MY XB K Teetan · F C Lor 1 3.4 1-1/4
4 10 VIVA CHEF B K C Leung · L Ho 4 9.3 1-3/4
5 11 INFINITE POWER V- M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 34.0 2-1/2
6 7 VERY SWEET ORANGE V T Piccone · Y S Tsui 6 14.0 3
7 12 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB M F Poon · D J Hall 8 24.0 3-1/4
8 4 RAGING BLAZE TT1 J Moreira · J Size 12 13.0 4
9 9 GOUTEN OF GARO B/TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris 10 60.0 4-1/4
10 8 FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT- Z Purton · C S Shum 7 3.0 5-1/4
11 5 TOWARDS SUCCESS H1 A Badel · W Y So 3 12.0 5-3/4
12 6 TWINX M L Yeung · K W Lui 2 105.0 18-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY FIRE2. CANTSTOPTHEFEELING+0.05L3. MY MY MY+1.25L4. VIVA CHEF+1.75L5. INFINITE POWER+2.5L6. VERY SWEET ORANGE+3L7. OVERSUBSCRIBED+3.25L8. RAGING BLAZE+4L9. GOUTEN OF GARO+4.25L10. FORTUNE CARRIER+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MY MY MY (27.7%) finished 3rd — the winner HARMONY FIRE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MY MY MY 27.7% 3.61 3
2 4 RAGING BLAZE 22.2% 4.51 8
3 8 FORTUNE CARRIER 10.9% 9.20 10
4 10 VIVA CHEF 8.9% 11.25 4
5 3 HARMONY FIRE 6.9% 14.49 1
6 12 OVERSUBSCRIBED 5.0% 20.01 7
7 5 TOWARDS SUCCESS 4.9% 20.21 11
8 1 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING 4.4% 22.97 2
9 6 TWINX 3.4% 29.59 12
10 11 INFINITE POWER 2.2% 46.01 5
11 7 VERY SWEET ORANGE 2.0% 49.62 6
12 9 GOUTEN OF GARO 1.6% 62.18 9
MY MY MYRAGING BLAZEFORTUNE CARRIERVIVA CHEFHARMONY FIRE — wonOVERSUBSCRIBEDTOWARDS SUCCESSCANTSTOPTHEFEELINGTWINXINFINITE POWERVERY SWEET ORANGEGOUTEN OF GARO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 101

PLACE

1 29.5

2 15.5

3 29.5

QUINELLA

1,3 480

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 97

1,3 161.5

2,3 69

FORECAST

3,1 782

TIERCE

3,1,2 4,122

TRIO

1,2,3 641

FIRST 4

1,2,3,10 522

QUARTET

3,1,2,10 16,539

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,9/1,2,3 22,569

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 36

4TH DOUBLE

1/1 120

1/3 518