Happy Valley · 2021-02-24
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-24 was Class 1 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SOLAR WAI WAI, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with FAST MOST FURIOUS second and THE ROCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SUNSHINE WARRIOR finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SOLAR WAI WAI Closed strongly 1.38.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 9.2 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 8 | 9.5 | SH |
| 3 | 8 | THE ROCK Closed strongly A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 4.7 | N |
| 4 | 3 | STAR SHINE TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 4.7 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | MAGNIFICENT Led early H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 1 | 8.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT XB/B1/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 9 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 20.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 7 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 6 | 3.6 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | SIMPLY BRILLIANT XB/H2 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 39.0 | 24-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 30.6% | 3.27 | 8 |
| 2 | 8 | THE ROCK | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | MAGNIFICENT | 10.9% | 9.14 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | STAR SHINE | 10.1% | 9.92 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | FAST MOST FURIOUS | 9.7% | 10.27 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | SOLAR WAI WAI | 6.5% | 15.41 | 1 |
| 7 | 4 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT | 4.8% | 20.81 | 6 |
| 8 | 1 | SIMPLY BRILLIANT | 1.8% | 55.60 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | BERLIN TANGO | 0.6% | 158.16 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 92
PLACE
2 28.5
6 34
8 15.5
QUINELLA
2,6 630.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 172.5
2,8 86.5
6,8 87
FORECAST
6,2 1,510
TIERCE
6,2,8 8,059
TRIO
2,6,8 1,035
FIRST 4
2,3,6,8 650
QUARTET
6,2,8,3 24,951
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/2 81.5
4/6 644.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 35.5