沙田 · 2021-04-25
第 5場
2021-04-25沙田第5場，Group 1，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、R Gibson訓練的WELLINGTON勝出，贏出1-1/2。COMPUTER PATCH獲得亞軍；SKY FIELD獲得季軍。2.2倍大熱門DANON SMASH跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | WELLINGTON XB 1.08.64 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 3.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | COMPUTER PATCH TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 19.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | VOYAGE WARRIOR V- R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 6 | 52.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 10 | 48.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | DANON SMASH J Moreira · T Yasuda | J Moreira | T Yasuda | 5 | 2.2 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | STRONGER CP/XB/TT C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 8 | 6.7 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | RATTAN B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 12 | 51.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | BIG PARTY K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 61.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | FAT TURTLE B A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 13 | 135.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | JOLLY BANNER B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 57.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 8.7 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | AMAZING STAR V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 4 | 48.0 | 11-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | WELLINGTON | 30.0% | 3.33 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | DANON SMASH | 19.8% | 5.05 | 6 |
| 3 | 12 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE | 11.9% | 8.43 | 12 |
| 4 | 13 | SKY FIELD | 5.6% | 17.92 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | COMPUTER PATCH | 5.3% | 18.77 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | RATTAN | 4.9% | 20.59 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | STRONGER | 4.7% | 21.33 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | BIG PARTY | 3.8% | 26.48 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 3.6% | 28.04 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | FAT TURTLE | 3.4% | 29.61 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | AMAZING STAR | 2.7% | 37.06 | 13 |
| 12 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER | 2.4% | 41.20 | 5 |
| 13 | 2 | JOLLY BANNER | 2.0% | 49.92 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 39.5
PLACE
4 46.5
6 16
13 26.5
QUINELLA
4,6 242
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 88.5
4,13 178
6,13 56.5
FORECAST
6,4 614
TIERCE
6,4,13 2,964
TRIO
4,6,13 769
FIRST 4
4,6,11,13 5,313
QUARTET
6,4,13,11 60,430
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 14.5
4TH DOUBLE
5/4 198
5/6 269.5