沙田 · 2021-05-08
第 10場
2021-05-08沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的HONGKONG GREAT勝出，贏出5-1/2。THE ROCK獲得亞軍；BERLIN TANGO獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。頭馬以2.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HONGKONG GREAT 一路領先 B/TT 1.36.15 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 2.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | THE ROCK 後段發力 P1 C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 10 | 22.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | BERLIN TANGO 後段發力 H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 11 | 21.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | BEAR SLAM 後段發力 M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 14 | 57.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 5 | 14 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 8 | 10.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | ELUSIVE STATE 後段發力 B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 3 | 6.5 | 7-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | GLORIOUS ARTIST C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 2 | 11.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | PRECIOUSSHIP 後段發力 XB T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 7 | 14.0 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE B-/TT- H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 13 | 85.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | RED DESERT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 6 | 39.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 9 | 64.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | BIGWOOD B/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 4 | 32.0 | 18 |
| 13 | 8 | CONGRATULATION B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 1 | 14.0 | 25-1/2 |
| 14 | 2 | KINGS SHIELD CP K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 12 | 20.0 | 28-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HONGKONG GREAT | 24.3% | 4.11 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | ELUSIVE STATE | 22.0% | 4.55 | 6 |
| 3 | 6 | THE ROCK | 11.7% | 8.56 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | GLORIOUS ARTIST | 5.7% | 17.48 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | RED DESERT | 5.0% | 19.92 | 10 |
| 6 | 9 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 5.0% | 20.10 | 11 |
| 7 | 2 | KINGS SHIELD | 4.9% | 20.44 | 14 |
| 8 | 14 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 4.4% | 22.49 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | BERLIN TANGO | 3.5% | 28.24 | 3 |
| 10 | 13 | BIGWOOD | 3.4% | 29.37 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | BEAR SLAM | 2.9% | 34.47 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | CONGRATULATION | 2.8% | 35.84 | 13 |
| 13 | 5 | PRECIOUSSHIP | 2.3% | 42.56 | 8 |
| 14 | 11 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 2.0% | 50.95 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 20
PLACE
6 54.5
7 12
10 77
QUINELLA
6,7 218
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 87.5
6,10 550
7,10 117.5
FORECAST
7,6 293
TIERCE
7,6,10 4,994
TRIO
6,7,10 2,034
FIRST 4
6,7,10,12 9,292
QUARTET
7,6,10,12 88,749
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 17.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,11/6,7,10 426,547
9TH DOUBLE
10/6 311
10/7 170
SIX UP
7,11/4,9/3,11/9,12/6,10/6,7 97,826
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
9/10/6 5,243
9/10/7 6,448