沙田 · 2021-09-12
第 10場
2021-09-12沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、K H Ting訓練的MY SUGAR勝出，贏出1-1/2。GORYTUS獲得亞軍；SUPER WINNER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.5倍大熱門THE GOLDEN SCENERY跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | MY SUGAR 後段發力 CP 1.21.26 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 5 | 4.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | GORYTUS 後段發力 XB1/TT1 H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 4 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | SUPER WINNER TT J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 6 | 7.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 3 | 2.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | HEZA BEAUTY 後段發力 E B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 9 | 31.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | ALCARI 後段發力 V K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 14 | 18.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | WIN WIN 後段發力 B T Piccone · T P Yung | T Piccone | T P Yung | 13 | 77.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE 後段發力 B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 10 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | GIFT OF LIFELINE 後段發力 B H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 12 | 41.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | MOERAKI B A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 11 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | GOLFMAN STAR 早段領放 CP1/H1 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 130.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | SUPER TEN CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 1 | 6.6 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 8 | SKYEY SUPREME B/TT H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 2 | 209.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | OUR CLASS ACT H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 8 | 393.0 | 14 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SUPER TEN | 25.1% | 3.98 | 12 |
| 2 | 5 | MY SUGAR | 18.7% | 5.34 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | SUPER WINNER | 16.0% | 6.26 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 15.1% | 6.61 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 4.7% | 21.19 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | ALCARI | 4.3% | 23.40 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | SKYEY SUPREME | 3.7% | 27.25 | 13 |
| 8 | 1 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 3.3% | 30.45 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | MOERAKI | 2.7% | 37.20 | 10 |
| 10 | 2 | HEZA BEAUTY | 1.8% | 54.68 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | GOLFMAN STAR | 1.7% | 57.51 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | GORYTUS | 1.3% | 75.62 | 2 |
| 13 | 13 | WIN WIN | 1.2% | 80.86 | 7 |
| 14 | 14 | OUR CLASS ACT | 0.3% | 330.69 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 43.5
PLACE
4 22
5 17
7 35.5
QUINELLA
5,7 609.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 46.5
4,7 236
5,7 178
FORECAST
5,7 874
TIERCE
5,7,4 5,815
TRIO
4,5,7 1,305
FIRST 4
3,4,5,7 488
QUARTET
5,7,4,3 15,592
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,10/4,5,7 105,507
9TH DOUBLE
2/5 390
2/7 896.5
SIX UP
1,9/3,11/7,8/2,9/2,4/5,7 253,520
4 [B Shinn] —
TREBLE
9/2/5 1,210
9/2/7 3,252