Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-09-12

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MY SUGAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/2, with GORYTUS second and SUPER WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite THE GOLDEN SCENERY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 MY SUGAR Closed strongly CP 1.21.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting 5 4.3 1-1/2
2 7 GORYTUS Closed strongly XB1/TT1 H Bentley · C S Shum 4 22.0 1-1/2
3 4 SUPER WINNER TT J Moreira · C H Yip 6 7.8 1-1/2
4 3 THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 3 2.5 1-1/2
5 2 HEZA BEAUTY Closed strongly E B Shinn · J Size 9 31.0 2-3/4
6 10 ALCARI Closed strongly V K Teetan · P F Yiu 14 18.0 2-3/4
7 13 WIN WIN Closed strongly B T Piccone · T P Yung 13 77.0 3
8 9 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 10 14.0 3-1/2
9 1 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B H T Mo · A T Millard 12 41.0 4-1/4
10 11 MOERAKI B A Hamelin · C W Chang 11 17.0 4-3/4
11 12 GOLFMAN STAR Led early CP1/H1 K C Leung · F C Lor 7 130.0 6-1/4
12 6 SUPER TEN CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 6.6 6-1/2
13 8 SKYEY SUPREME B/TT H N Wong · K W Lui 2 209.0 9-1/4
14 14 OUR CLASS ACT H W Lai · Y S Tsui 8 393.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY SUGAR2. GORYTUS+1.5L3. SUPER WINNER+1.5L4. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+1.5L5. HEZA BEAUTY+2.75L6. ALCARI+2.75L7. WIN WIN+3L8. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+3.5L9. GIFT OF LIFELINE+4.25L10. MOERAKI+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPER TEN (25.1%) finished 12th — the winner MY SUGAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SUPER TEN 25.1% 3.98 12
2 5 MY SUGAR 18.7% 5.34 1
3 4 SUPER WINNER 16.0% 6.26 3
4 3 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 15.1% 6.61 4
5 9 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 4.7% 21.19 8
6 10 ALCARI 4.3% 23.40 6
7 8 SKYEY SUPREME 3.7% 27.25 13
8 1 GIFT OF LIFELINE 3.3% 30.45 9
9 11 MOERAKI 2.7% 37.20 10
10 2 HEZA BEAUTY 1.8% 54.68 5
11 12 GOLFMAN STAR 1.7% 57.51 11
12 7 GORYTUS 1.3% 75.62 2
13 13 WIN WIN 1.2% 80.86 7
14 14 OUR CLASS ACT 0.3% 330.69 14
SUPER TENMY SUGAR — wonSUPER WINNERTHE GOLDEN SCENERYINVINCIBLE MISSILEALCARISKYEY SUPREMEGIFT OF LIFELINEMOERAKIHEZA BEAUTYGOLFMAN STARGORYTUSWIN WINOUR CLASS ACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 43.5

PLACE

4 22

5 17

7 35.5

QUINELLA

5,7 609.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 46.5

4,7 236

5,7 178

FORECAST

5,7 874

TIERCE

5,7,4 5,815

TRIO

4,5,7 1,305

FIRST 4

3,4,5,7 488

QUARTET

5,7,4,3 15,592

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,10/4,5,7 105,507

9TH DOUBLE

2/5 390

2/7 896.5

SIX UP

1,9/3,11/7,8/2,9/2,4/5,7 253,520

4 [B Shinn]

TREBLE

9/2/5 1,210

9/2/7 3,252