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Sha Tin · 2021-09-12

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course B 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER WEALTHY, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with HONG KONG WIN second and WINNER METHOD third. The 2.3 favourite WINNER METHOD finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.55.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SUPER WEALTHY CP-/H-/XB- 0.55.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D A Hayes 5 8.8 N
2 4 HONG KONG WIN J Moreira · J Size 11 14.0 N
3 10 WINNER METHOD TT K Teetan · C S Shum 2 2.3 3/4
4 11 WE THE SOUTH H/XB V Borges · F C Lor 1 90.0 3/4
5 7 TRILLION WIN CP A Badel · K L Man 7 3.9 1-1/4
6 5 LUCKY MORE Z Purton · C S Shum 10 11.0 1-3/4
7 9 PRIVATE ROCKET SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 26.0 2-1/2
8 3 VALIANT DREAM C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 11.0 3
9 1 PING HAI BRAVO E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 9 32.0 5-1/4
10 6 GOLD CHEST CP/TT C Schofield · R Gibson 4 12.0 5-3/4
11 8 CZARSON CP/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 3 101.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WEALTHY2. HONG KONG WIN+0.05L3. WINNER METHOD+0.75L4. WE THE SOUTH+0.75L5. TRILLION WIN+1.25L6. LUCKY MORE+1.75L7. PRIVATE ROCKET+2.5L8. VALIANT DREAM+3L9. PING HAI BRAVO+5.25L10. GOLD CHEST+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WINNER METHOD (34.2%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER WEALTHY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 WINNER METHOD 34.2% 2.92 3
2 7 TRILLION WIN 18.1% 5.54 5
3 4 HONG KONG WIN 10.6% 9.46 2
4 5 LUCKY MORE 6.7% 14.87 6
5 6 GOLD CHEST 5.5% 18.04 10
6 2 SUPER WEALTHY 5.0% 19.84 1
7 3 VALIANT DREAM 4.4% 22.80 8
8 9 PRIVATE ROCKET 4.4% 22.98 7
9 1 PING HAI BRAVO 4.3% 23.27 9
10 8 CZARSON 4.1% 24.39 11
11 11 WE THE SOUTH 2.7% 36.69 4
WINNER METHODTRILLION WINHONG KONG WINLUCKY MOREGOLD CHESTSUPER WEALTHY — wonVALIANT DREAMPRIVATE ROCKETPING HAI BRAVOCZARSONWE THE SOUTH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 88.5

PLACE

2 25

4 36.5

10 12

QUINELLA

2,4 774.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 175.5

2,10 43.5

4,10 59.5

FORECAST

2,4 1,669

TIERCE

2,4,10 5,054

TRIO

2,4,10 460

FIRST 4

2,4,10,11 5,068

QUARTET

2,4,10,11 171,253

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 35.5

A1

A3

8TH DOUBLE

9/2 251.5

9/4 92.5