Sha Tin · 2021-09-12
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN FOUR, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with EASY FORTUNE second and EVEN KEEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite SEIZE THE SPIRIT finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly P- 1.22.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 12 | 15.0 | N |
| 2 | 1 | EASY FORTUNE Closed strongly CP C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 11 | 89.0 | N |
| 3 | 12 | EVEN KEEL Closed strongly B/XB R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 1 | 8.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 7 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 5 | 14 | BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 7.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | ALLOY STAR Closed strongly B Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 9 | 7.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | M M JOHNNY Closed strongly B A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 5 | 9.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | FOX CHEUNGER B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 4.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 13 | WHO'S HORSE B/XB1/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 13 | 35.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | TOP ACCOLADE Closed strongly TT T Piccone · C H Yip | T Piccone | C H Yip | 10 | 187.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | SUPER KIN Led early TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 14 | 13.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | OURGOLDENRULES SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 21.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 13 | 11 | MAGIC BONUS B2 K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 8 | 51.0 | 18-3/4 |
| — | 3 | SAM'S LOVE TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 4 | 30.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT | 19.6% | 5.10 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | ALLOY STAR | 16.8% | 5.95 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | FOX CHEUNGER | 13.2% | 7.59 | 8 |
| 4 | 12 | EVEN KEEL | 11.9% | 8.44 | 3 |
| 5 | 14 | BRAVE POWER | 8.3% | 12.07 | 5 |
| 6 | 9 | OURGOLDENRULES | 7.6% | 13.15 | 12 |
| 7 | 10 | SUPER KIN | 6.6% | 15.06 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | M M JOHNNY | 5.5% | 18.14 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | GOLDEN FOUR | 4.3% | 23.17 | 1 |
| 10 | 13 | WHO'S HORSE | 2.8% | 36.06 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | EASY FORTUNE | 1.3% | 77.00 | 2 |
| 12 | 11 | MAGIC BONUS | 1.1% | 87.08 | 13 |
| 13 | 5 | TOP ACCOLADE | 1.0% | 100.61 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 151.5
PLACE
1 200.5
4 40.5
12 28.5
QUINELLA
1,4 5,714.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 1,486
1,12 912
4,12 168
FORECAST
4,1 10,539
TIERCE
4,1,12 97,750
TRIO
1,4,12 9,383
FIRST 4
1,2,4,12 13,877
QUARTET
4,1,12,2 517,430
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,8/1,4,12 232,091
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 31.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/1 181
5/4 142