Sha Tin · 2021-09-12
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. STEEL WIN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C W Chang, won by SH, with THE BEST HERO second and BLOTTING PAPER third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | STEEL WIN 1.08.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 2 | 2.8 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | THE BEST HERO B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 11 | 6.2 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | BLOTTING PAPER B A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 6 | 9.6 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | GLORIOUS LOVER K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 1 | 23.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | SIGHT HERO CP C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 7 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | MAGIC SUPREME CP/TT R Maia · K L Man | R Maia | K L Man | 10 | 9.6 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | LITTLE THUNDER B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 9 | 5.3 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | ORIENTAL AMIGO B L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 5 | 112.0 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | LUMEN BABA H/P/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 31.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | HERCULES B/XB/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 8 | 10.0 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 4 | 22.0 | 14-1/2 |
| — | 6 | GOLD GOLD BABY C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | STEEL WIN | 39.1% | 2.56 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | SIGHT HERO | 8.3% | 12.02 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 7.0% | 14.29 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 6.6% | 15.09 | 11 |
| 5 | 11 | THE BEST HERO | 6.5% | 15.41 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | LITTLE THUNDER | 6.2% | 16.09 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | MAGIC SUPREME | 5.7% | 17.60 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | LUMEN BABA | 5.3% | 18.96 | 9 |
| 9 | 3 | HERCULES | 5.1% | 19.42 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | BLOTTING PAPER | 5.1% | 19.52 | 3 |
| 11 | 12 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 5.1% | 19.77 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 28.5
PLACE
5 29
8 15
11 15.5
QUINELLA
8,11 100
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 71
5,11 95.5
8,11 38
FORECAST
8,11 139
TIERCE
8,11,5 1,042
TRIO
5,8,11 273
FIRST 4
4,5,8,11 1,394
QUARTET
8,11,5,4 16,724
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
10/8 497
10/11 162
3 PICK 1
A1 22
A2 —
A3 —