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Sha Tin · 2021-09-12

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LAND POWER, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with JOYFUL HEART second and CASIMIRO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite AWE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.21.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 LAND POWER Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes 8 9.7 3/4
2 8 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 9 12.0 3/4
3 1 CASIMIRO Closed strongly Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 4 13.0 1
4 3 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 3 26.0 1-3/4
5 6 GREEN ENVY V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 6 6.8 2-1/2
6 2 UNICORNBABY Led early B/TT C L Chau · R Gibson 1 7.7 2-1/2
7 5 AWE Closed strongly B B Shinn · D A Hayes 2 4.4 3
8 11 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 11 7.2 3
9 10 GO GO SIXTEEN B1/TT1 K C Leung · K W Lui 7 14.0 3-1/4
10 14 ALEE KING PRAWN B H N Wong · K H Ting 5 51.0 3-3/4
11 13 BRILLIANT CHINA Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 13 8.0 4
12 9 TELECOM CHEETAH B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 10 90.0 5-3/4
13 4 DRAGON BABY TT C Schofield · J Size 12 24.0 7-3/4
14 12 SCHOLAR H/XB H W Lai · L Ho 14 252.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LAND POWER2. JOYFUL HEART+0.75L3. CASIMIRO+1L4. GREAT TREASURE+1.75L5. GREEN ENVY+2.5L6. UNICORNBABY+2.5L7. AWE+3L8. JIANGXI STAMINA+3L9. GO GO SIXTEEN+3.25L10. ALEE KING PRAWN+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GREEN ENVY (22.8%) finished 5th — the winner LAND POWER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GREEN ENVY 22.8% 4.38 5
2 1 CASIMIRO 13.4% 7.45 3
3 11 JIANGXI STAMINA 10.4% 9.60 8
4 5 AWE 10.3% 9.67 7
5 2 UNICORNBABY 8.4% 11.96 6
6 13 BRILLIANT CHINA 7.6% 13.22 11
7 7 LAND POWER 7.5% 13.39 1
8 8 JOYFUL HEART 7.3% 13.77 2
9 4 DRAGON BABY 5.3% 18.88 13
10 10 GO GO SIXTEEN 4.0% 25.19 9
11 3 GREAT TREASURE 1.1% 89.39 4
12 9 TELECOM CHEETAH 0.9% 113.47 12
13 14 ALEE KING PRAWN 0.7% 153.53 10
14 12 SCHOLAR 0.4% 245.46 14
GREEN ENVYCASIMIROJIANGXI STAMINAAWEUNICORNBABYBRILLIANT CHINALAND POWER — wonJOYFUL HEARTDRAGON BABYGO GO SIXTEENGREAT TREASURETELECOM CHEETAHALEE KING PRAWNSCHOLAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 97.5

PLACE

1 42.5

7 34

8 43.5

QUINELLA

7,8 662

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 250

1,8 259.5

7,8 203.5

FORECAST

7,8 1,331

TIERCE

7,8,1 23,367

TRIO

1,7,8 3,354

FIRST 4

1,3,7,8 17,540

QUARTET

7,8,1,3 258,331

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,11/F 15,446

3 PICK 1

A3 18.5

A2

A1

6TH DOUBLE

3/7 4,746.5

3/8 1,009.5