Sha Tin · 2021-09-12
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LAND POWER, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with JOYFUL HEART second and CASIMIRO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite AWE finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LAND POWER Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 8 | 9.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CASIMIRO Closed strongly Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 3 | 26.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | GREEN ENVY V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | UNICORNBABY Led early B/TT C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 1 | 7.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | AWE Closed strongly B B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.4 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 11 | 7.2 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | GO GO SIXTEEN B1/TT1 K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 7 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 14 | ALEE KING PRAWN B H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 5 | 51.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | BRILLIANT CHINA Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 13 | 8.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | TELECOM CHEETAH B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 10 | 90.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | DRAGON BABY TT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 12 | 24.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 12 | SCHOLAR H/XB H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 14 | 252.0 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | GREEN ENVY | 22.8% | 4.38 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | CASIMIRO | 13.4% | 7.45 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | JIANGXI STAMINA | 10.4% | 9.60 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 | AWE | 10.3% | 9.67 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | UNICORNBABY | 8.4% | 11.96 | 6 |
| 6 | 13 | BRILLIANT CHINA | 7.6% | 13.22 | 11 |
| 7 | 7 | LAND POWER | 7.5% | 13.39 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | JOYFUL HEART | 7.3% | 13.77 | 2 |
| 9 | 4 | DRAGON BABY | 5.3% | 18.88 | 13 |
| 10 | 10 | GO GO SIXTEEN | 4.0% | 25.19 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | GREAT TREASURE | 1.1% | 89.39 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | TELECOM CHEETAH | 0.9% | 113.47 | 12 |
| 13 | 14 | ALEE KING PRAWN | 0.7% | 153.53 | 10 |
| 14 | 12 | SCHOLAR | 0.4% | 245.46 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 97.5
PLACE
1 42.5
7 34
8 43.5
QUINELLA
7,8 662
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 250
1,8 259.5
7,8 203.5
FORECAST
7,8 1,331
TIERCE
7,8,1 23,367
TRIO
1,7,8 3,354
FIRST 4
1,3,7,8 17,540
QUARTET
7,8,1,3 258,331
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,11/F 15,446
3 PICK 1
A3 18.5
A2 —
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
3/7 4,746.5
3/8 1,009.5