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Sha Tin · 2021-09-12

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KING'S CAPITAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with SOLAR POWER second and THE ANOMALY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly 1.21.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 2 3.2 SH
2 9 SOLAR POWER Led early K C Leung · C H Yip 4 5.7 SH
3 5 THE ANOMALY M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 5.1 1-1/4
4 3 SPEED FAY FAY B B Shinn · T P Yung 7 9.8 3-1/2
5 6 DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 6 20.0 3-3/4
6 7 LAPUTA TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 13.0 4
7 12 SPARKLING STAR Closed strongly E-/TT A Badel · W Y So 10 13.0 4-1/2
8 4 XIANG YIN Closed strongly TT K Teetan · F C Lor 9 9.2 4-3/4
9 8 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H M F Poon · D J Hall 8 88.0 5-1/4
10 10 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B H Bentley · P F Yiu 12 31.0 5-1/2
11 2 BIG BROOK B J Moreira · C Fownes 11 16.0 6-3/4
12 11 BEST FOR YOU B L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 3 41.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING'S CAPITAL2. SOLAR POWER+0.1L3. THE ANOMALY+1.25L4. SPEED FAY FAY+3.5L5. DECISIVE ACTION+3.75L6. LAPUTA+4L7. SPARKLING STAR+4.5L8. XIANG YIN+4.75L9. LOTUS FAVORITES+5.25L10. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick KING'S CAPITAL (23.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 KING'S CAPITAL 23.8% 4.20 1
2 2 BIG BROOK 19.1% 5.23 11
3 11 BEST FOR YOU 8.4% 11.96 12
4 5 THE ANOMALY 8.1% 12.28 3
5 4 XIANG YIN 6.9% 14.45 8
6 3 SPEED FAY FAY 6.8% 14.66 4
7 7 LAPUTA 6.2% 16.25 6
8 12 SPARKLING STAR 5.7% 17.43 7
9 9 SOLAR POWER 4.6% 21.74 2
10 6 DECISIVE ACTION 4.5% 22.07 5
11 10 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 4.3% 23.12 10
12 8 LOTUS FAVORITES 1.5% 66.70 9
KING'S CAPITAL — wonBIG BROOKBEST FOR YOUTHE ANOMALYXIANG YINSPEED FAY FAYLAPUTASPARKLING STARSOLAR POWERDECISIVE ACTIONWINWIN THIRTYTHREELOTUS FAVORITES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 32.5

PLACE

1 16

5 17

9 21.5

QUINELLA

1,9 105

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 40

1,9 44

5,9 74

FORECAST

1,9 236

TIERCE

1,9,5 849

TRIO

1,5,9 193

FIRST 4

1,3,5,9 234

QUARTET

1,9,5,3 4,614

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 20

A3

A2

4TH DOUBLE

4/1 534

4/9 148