Sha Tin · 2021-09-12
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KING'S CAPITAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with SOLAR POWER second and THE ANOMALY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly 1.21.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 2 | 3.2 | SH |
| 2 | 9 | SOLAR POWER Led early K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 4 | 5.7 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | THE ANOMALY M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 5.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SPEED FAY FAY B B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 7 | 9.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 6 | 20.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | LAPUTA TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | SPARKLING STAR Closed strongly E-/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 10 | 13.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | XIANG YIN Closed strongly TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 9.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 88.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 12 | 31.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | BIG BROOK B J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 11 | 16.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | BEST FOR YOU B L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 3 | 41.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | KING'S CAPITAL | 23.8% | 4.20 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | BIG BROOK | 19.1% | 5.23 | 11 |
| 3 | 11 | BEST FOR YOU | 8.4% | 11.96 | 12 |
| 4 | 5 | THE ANOMALY | 8.1% | 12.28 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | XIANG YIN | 6.9% | 14.45 | 8 |
| 6 | 3 | SPEED FAY FAY | 6.8% | 14.66 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | LAPUTA | 6.2% | 16.25 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | SPARKLING STAR | 5.7% | 17.43 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | SOLAR POWER | 4.6% | 21.74 | 2 |
| 10 | 6 | DECISIVE ACTION | 4.5% | 22.07 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 4.3% | 23.12 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | LOTUS FAVORITES | 1.5% | 66.70 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 32.5
PLACE
1 16
5 17
9 21.5
QUINELLA
1,9 105
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 40
1,9 44
5,9 74
FORECAST
1,9 236
TIERCE
1,9,5 849
TRIO
1,5,9 193
FIRST 4
1,3,5,9 234
QUARTET
1,9,5,3 4,614
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 20
A3 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
4/1 534
4/9 148