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Sha Tin · 2021-09-12

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LIGHT MY DAY, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with DAILY CHARM second and RIGHTEOUS WIN third. The winner led throughout. The 3.4 favourite JIMMU finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.34.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 LIGHT MY DAY Wire to wire B/TT 1.34.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C H Yip 12 10.0 1/2
2 1 DAILY CHARM Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 10 11.0 1/2
3 11 RIGHTEOUS WIN Closed strongly B H Bentley · P F Yiu 8 12.0 2
4 2 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard 11 43.0 2
5 4 JIMMU SR J Moreira · Y S Tsui 2 3.4 3-1/4
6 9 DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT Z Purton · J Size 3 9.1 4
7 12 JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 1 3.6 4-1/2
8 5 MISTER MONTE B-/CP2 K H Chan · C W Chang 7 23.0 4-3/4
9 8 STRATHMARTINE B/TT K C Leung · A T Millard 9 56.0 5-1/4
10 7 GRAND POWER Closed strongly B T Piccone · C W Chang 5 43.0 5-3/4
11 3 DAZZLING FEELING B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 4 14.0 8-3/4
12 13 THE ELITES CP-/TT V Borges · F C Lor 13 120.0 9
13 6 CIGAR BUDDIES B C Y Ho · K H Ting 6 10.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIGHT MY DAY2. DAILY CHARM+0.5L3. RIGHTEOUS WIN+2L4. SUPER HONG KONG+2L5. JIMMU+3.25L6. DIAMOND STAR+4L7. JOLLY FOREVER+4.5L8. MISTER MONTE+4.75L9. STRATHMARTINE+5.25L10. GRAND POWER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JIMMU (28.4%) finished 5th — the winner LIGHT MY DAY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 JIMMU 28.4% 3.52 5
2 9 DIAMOND STAR 18.6% 5.37 6
3 12 JOLLY FOREVER 12.3% 8.14 7
4 11 RIGHTEOUS WIN 10.9% 9.21 3
5 6 CIGAR BUDDIES 5.1% 19.64 13
6 5 MISTER MONTE 4.9% 20.34 8
7 3 DAZZLING FEELING 4.9% 20.56 11
8 2 SUPER HONG KONG 3.5% 28.27 4
9 7 GRAND POWER 3.1% 32.55 10
10 10 LIGHT MY DAY 2.7% 36.73 1
11 1 DAILY CHARM 2.6% 37.94 2
12 13 THE ELITES 1.5% 64.69 12
13 8 STRATHMARTINE 1.5% 68.18 9
JIMMUDIAMOND STARJOLLY FOREVERRIGHTEOUS WINCIGAR BUDDIESMISTER MONTEDAZZLING FEELINGSUPER HONG KONGGRAND POWERLIGHT MY DAY — wonDAILY CHARMTHE ELITESSTRATHMARTINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 106.5

PLACE

1 35.5

10 37

11 39.5

QUINELLA

1,10 714.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 214

1,11 231.5

10,11 232

FORECAST

10,1 1,916

TIERCE

10,1,11 14,222

TRIO

1,10,11 2,377

FIRST 4

1,2,10,11 18,436

QUARTET

10,1,11,2 282,745

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 26.5

A1