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Sha Tin · 2021-09-12

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GLUCK RACER V 1.08.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting 1 2.9 1-3/4
2 0 IMA SINGLE MAN B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 2.8 1-3/4
3 0 LOCKHEED B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 12 16.0 2
4 0 PROUD DRAGON L Ferraris · C Fownes 10 20.0 2-1/4
5 0 JOLLY GOOD HEART A Badel · T P Yung 2 12.0 4-1/4
7 0 TRUST ME H M Chadwick · C H Yip 7 16.0 5-1/4
8 0 CHEERFUL DAYS B H Bentley · K W Lui 13 48.0 6
9 0 BIG FORTUNE B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 15.0 6
10 0 IAN C Y Ho · F C Lor 5 15.0 6-3/4
11 0 SKY FOREVER TT K C Leung · K L Man 9 30.0 7
12 0 ABLE REIGN B1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 3 23.0 8-1/2
13 0 STOCK LEGEND H/TT R Maia · K W Lui 6 61.0 8-3/4
14 0 WIND SPEEDER B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 4 171.0 10
— 0 POWER KOEPP E J Moreira · J Size — 40.0 4-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GLUCK RACER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-3/4, with IMA SINGLE MAN second and LOCKHEED third. The 2.8 favourite IMA SINGLE MAN finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLUCK RACER—2. IMA SINGLE MAN+1.75L3. LOCKHEED+2L4. PROUD DRAGON+2.25L5. JOLLY GOOD HEART+4.25L7. TRUST ME+5.25L8. CHEERFUL DAYS+6L9. BIG FORTUNE+6L10. IAN+6.75L11. SKY FOREVER+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GLUCK RACER (26.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GLUCK RACER 26.4% 3.78 1
2 0 IMA SINGLE MAN 16.2% 6.18 2
3 0 JOLLY GOOD HEART 11.9% 8.43 5
4 0 LOCKHEED 8.6% 11.66 3
5 0 BIG FORTUNE 7.0% 14.34 9
6 0 TRUST ME 6.2% 16.25 7
7 0 POWER KOEPP 4.9% 20.38 —
8 0 IAN 4.8% 20.88 10
9 0 STOCK LEGEND 3.3% 30.05 13
10 0 PROUD DRAGON 2.9% 34.40 4
11 0 ABLE REIGN 2.6% 38.36 12
12 0 CHEERFUL DAYS 2.5% 39.84 8
13 0 SKY FOREVER 2.2% 45.37 11
14 0 WIND SPEEDER 0.6% 178.16 14
GLUCK RACER — wonIMA SINGLE MANJOLLY GOOD HEARTLOCKHEEDBIG FORTUNETRUST MEPOWER KOEPPIANSTOCK LEGENDPROUD DRAGONABLE REIGNCHEERFUL DAYSSKY FOREVERWIND SPEEDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 29.5

PLACE

2 13

3 39.5

9 13.5

QUINELLA

2,9 41

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 69.5

2,9 20.5

3,9 84

FORECAST

9,2 74

TIERCE

9,2,3 676

TRIO

2,3,9 142

FIRST 4

2,3,9,12 791

QUARTET

9,2,3,12 7,600

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 14.5

A3 —

7TH DOUBLE

7/2 70.5

7/9 401.5