Sha Tin · 2021-09-12
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LORD THUNDER, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with FORTUNE HAPPINESS second and SUNNY DELIGHT third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LORD THUNDER XB1/TT1 1.08.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 2 | 1.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS B J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 4 | 8.4 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | SUNNY DELIGHT B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 1 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | AMAZING KNIGHT P M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 3 | 28.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | JADE THEATRE B H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 9 | 44.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | HANG'S DECISION B H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 7 | 125.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | DRAGON KINGDOM L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 8 | 75.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | COOLCELEB B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 11 | 20.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | INFINITE POWER CP M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 10.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | LUCKY RUBY B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 10 | 30.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | SMART FOLKS P-/B2 A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 5 | 25.0 | 15-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | INFINITE POWER | 22.0% | 4.55 | 9 |
| 2 | 8 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS | 21.0% | 4.77 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | SUNNY DELIGHT | 9.7% | 10.33 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | AMAZING KNIGHT | 9.4% | 10.65 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | SMART FOLKS | 9.2% | 10.87 | 11 |
| 6 | 3 | COOLCELEB | 8.9% | 11.20 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | LUCKY RUBY | 7.6% | 13.24 | 10 |
| 8 | 9 | JADE THEATRE | 5.6% | 17.97 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | LORD THUNDER | 3.3% | 30.20 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 | HANG'S DECISION | 2.2% | 45.97 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 1.2% | 80.17 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 14.5
PLACE
5 10.5
6 18.5
8 16.5
QUINELLA
5,8 53
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 32.5
5,8 23
6,8 67
FORECAST
5,8 53
TIERCE
5,8,6 279
TRIO
5,6,8 130
FIRST 4
5,6,8,11 232
QUARTET
5,8,6,11 1,756
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/5 54.5
8/8 26.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 12.5
A3 —