跑馬地 · 2021-10-06
第 5場
2021-10-06跑馬地第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的A SMILE LIKE YOURS勝出，贏出N。YEE CHEONG WARRIOR獲得亞軍；DESTIN獲得季軍。2.7倍大熱門GOOD SHOT跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS 1.10.03 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 5.3 | N |
| 2 | 10 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR CP-/H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 24.0 | N |
| 3 | 11 | DESTIN B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 34.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | GOOD SHOT XB-/TT1 Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 4 | 2.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | AURORA PEGASUS TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 2 | 8.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | JADE THEATRE B H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 10 | 27.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR B C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 7 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | FLAMING PASSION CP-/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 7.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | DIVINE ERA TT1 A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 3 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | HAPPY TIME TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 8 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | WINMORE STAR B1 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON B/TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 11 | 100.0 | 5-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GOOD SHOT | 24.1% | 4.14 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 19.1% | 5.25 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | AURORA PEGASUS | 12.0% | 8.35 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | FLAMING PASSION | 11.1% | 9.00 | 8 |
| 5 | 6 | HAPPY TIME | 9.8% | 10.17 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | DESTIN | 4.3% | 23.10 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | DIVINE ERA | 3.9% | 25.48 | 9 |
| 8 | 3 | WINMORE STAR | 3.6% | 28.07 | 11 |
| 9 | 9 | JADE THEATRE | 3.4% | 29.54 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR | 3.2% | 31.29 | 2 |
| 11 | 12 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 3.0% | 33.34 | 12 |
| 12 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 2.5% | 40.02 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 53.5
PLACE
7 18
10 64
11 81.5
QUINELLA
7,10 650.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,10 179
7,11 232.5
10,11 660.5
FORECAST
7,10 1,027
TIERCE
7,10,11 14,877
TRIO
7,10,11 5,121
FIRST 4
5,7,10,11 2,490
QUARTET
7,10,11,5 61,457
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,8/7,10,11 1,983,568
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18
4TH DOUBLE
8/7 1,281
8/10 572