沙田 · 2021-10-17
第 6場
2021-10-17沙田第6場，Group 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K W Lui訓練的LUCKY PATCH勝出，贏出N。SUPER WEALTHY獲得亞軍；STRONGER獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門COURIER WONDER跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH H/V 1.07.95 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 12 | 9.3 | N |
| 2 | 7 | SUPER WEALTHY C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 6 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | STRONGER SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 7 | 16.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | DUKE WAI B/H V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 27.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | COURIER WONDER J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 9 | 2.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | WISHFUL THINKER CP1 K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 10 | 63.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | COMPUTER PATCH TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 48.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | VOYAGE WARRIOR B- R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 1 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | NABOO ATTACK A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 3 | 3.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 2 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | BUDDIES H H N Wong · A S Cruz | H N Wong | A S Cruz | 4 | 135.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | HARMONY AND RICH M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 8 | 33.0 | 15-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | COURIER WONDER | 31.1% | 3.21 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH | 18.4% | 5.43 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | NABOO ATTACK | 16.8% | 5.95 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | SKY FIELD | 8.4% | 11.85 | 10 |
| 5 | 7 | SUPER WEALTHY | 7.0% | 14.38 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | STRONGER | 4.9% | 20.21 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | COMPUTER PATCH | 3.6% | 27.72 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | DUKE WAI | 2.8% | 35.40 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | HARMONY AND RICH | 2.4% | 41.16 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 1.8% | 55.15 | 8 |
| 11 | 4 | BUDDIES | 1.4% | 71.88 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | WISHFUL THINKER | 1.2% | 80.15 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 93.5
PLACE
2 29
5 26
7 26.5
QUINELLA
5,7 345
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 158.5
2,7 210
5,7 110
FORECAST
5,7 1,000
TIERCE
5,7,2 7,216
TRIO
2,5,7 1,834
FIRST 4
2,5,7,8 6,489
QUARTET
5,7,2,8 130,206
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 32
5TH DOUBLE
1/5 939
1/7 179
TRIPLE TRIO
5,6,11/1,8,11/2,5,7 9,372,577
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
5,6,11/1,8,11/Any Combination 15,538
WINNING TRAINER
B1 —
B2 —
B3 —
B4 28.5