沙田 · 2021-12-18 · 14:03
第 3場
2021-12-18沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由M L Yeung策騎、T P Yung訓練的INCREDIBLE勝出，贏出1-3/4。LIGHT MY DAY獲得亞軍；PAKISTAN ZINDABAD獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.5倍大熱門FIGURES TWO跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | INCREDIBLE 後段發力 TT 1.34.96 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 5 | 6.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | LIGHT MY DAY 早段領放 B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 1 | 5.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD 後段發力 B/TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 3 | 33.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 13 | NOBLE MAN V-/B2/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 17.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | FIGURES TWO 後段發力 J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 13 | 4.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | RIGHTEOUS WIN B-/V2 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 12 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | HEROIC CHAMPION R Maia · P O'Sullivan | R Maia | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 67.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | DAILY CHARM 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 11 | 8.5 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | WAH MAY LUCK B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 10 | 10.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | DIAMOND STAR E/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 9 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | SUPER FLAMES 後段發力 B- K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 14 | 51.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | JIMMU SR C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 7 | 25.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | JOY MASTER B/TT K H Chan · D E Ferraris | K H Chan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 21.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | LUCKY MISSILE A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 8 | 16.0 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FIGURES TWO | 14.0% | 7.15 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | LIGHT MY DAY | 12.3% | 8.11 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | WAH MAY LUCK | 9.9% | 10.06 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | DAILY CHARM | 8.6% | 11.58 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | INCREDIBLE | 7.6% | 13.14 | 1 |
| 6 | 13 | NOBLE MAN | 7.6% | 13.20 | 4 |
| 7 | 14 | RIGHTEOUS WIN | 7.3% | 13.62 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | DIAMOND STAR | 6.9% | 14.57 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | LUCKY MISSILE | 6.7% | 14.96 | 14 |
| 10 | 8 | JIMMU | 6.3% | 15.98 | 12 |
| 11 | 3 | JOY MASTER | 5.2% | 19.39 | 13 |
| 12 | 9 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD | 4.7% | 21.31 | 3 |
| 13 | 10 | SUPER FLAMES | 1.7% | 59.67 | 11 |
| 14 | 2 | HEROIC CHAMPION | 1.3% | 79.76 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 61.5
PLACE
5 20
7 26
9 94.5
QUINELLA
5,7 178.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 73.5
5,9 326.5
7,9 363
FORECAST
7,5 400
TIERCE
7,5,9 10,688
TRIO
5,7,9 1,813
FIRST 4
5,7,9,13 7,004
QUARTET
7,5,9,13 102,530
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
5/5 45.5
5/7 414.5
3 PICK 1
A3 19
A1 —
A2 —