跑馬地 · 2022-02-09 · 21:46
第 7場
2022-02-09跑馬地第7場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K L Man訓練的LUCKY SWEYNESSE勝出，贏出2-1/2。SPICY GRILL獲得亞軍；KOKUSHI MUSOU獲得季軍。2.5倍大熱門SPICY GRILL跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.10.20 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 4 | 4.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | SPICY GRILL B/TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 1 | 2.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | KOKUSHI MUSOU H/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 5 | 62.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | MERCURIAL H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 3 | 7.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | ICE LEGEND H/TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 11 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | FALCON TURBO B/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | FIRE BALL B2/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 10 | 62.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | PEAK TO PEAK B/TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 12 | 39.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | HANDSOME REBEL B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | TAKINGUFURTHER V M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 6 | 25.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | INESTIMABLE B D Moor · D A Hayes | D Moor | D A Hayes | 2 | 7.3 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | BALTIC WHISPER TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 7 | 65.0 | 8-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SPICY GRILL | 25.5% | 3.92 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 19.0% | 5.28 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | FALCON TURBO | 10.8% | 9.24 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | TAKINGUFURTHER | 10.1% | 9.91 | 10 |
| 5 | 4 | ICE LEGEND | 9.9% | 10.14 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | MERCURIAL | 7.2% | 13.82 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | BALTIC WHISPER | 4.0% | 25.03 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | PEAK TO PEAK | 3.2% | 30.94 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | HANDSOME REBEL | 3.1% | 32.02 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | FIRE BALL | 3.1% | 32.65 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 2.4% | 41.83 | 3 |
| 12 | 10 | INESTIMABLE | 1.7% | 58.53 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 47.5
PLACE
5 13
6 18.5
8 126
QUINELLA
5,6 61.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 26.5
5,8 221
6,8 401.5
FORECAST
6,5 131
TIERCE
6,5,8 3,437
TRIO
5,6,8 833
FIRST 4
1,5,6,8 1,228
QUARTET
6,5,8,1 22,775
全部彩池（另 5 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
8,10,11/5,6,8 58,129
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16.5
6TH DOUBLE
8/5 10.5
8/6 88.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,9,10/8,10,11/5,6,8 1,387,944
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,9,10/8,10,11/Any Combination 1,976