沙田 · 2022-04-16 · 14:31
第 4場
2022-04-16沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由K C Leung策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的AUGUST MOON勝出，贏出1-1/4。CALIFORNIA VANES獲得亞軍；PROSECCO獲得季軍。2.2倍大熱門SMILING COLLECTOR跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | AUGUST MOON BO 1.09.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 7 | 5.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | PROSECCO A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 1 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | ETERNAL BLOOM C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 9 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | BIRDSVILLE B1/TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 8 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | GOOD BEAUTY CP/TT C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 6 | 8.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 62.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | GALLANT HERO CP1 J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 12 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | NOBLE DESIRE CP/SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 41.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | TOUCH FAITH M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 11 | 64.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | SMILING COLLECTOR SR M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 3 | 2.2 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | TUNG HAYE HAYE B/XB/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 10 | 81.0 | 10 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 20.7% | 4.84 | 11 |
| 2 | 8 | GALLANT HERO | 17.2% | 5.83 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | CALIFORNIA VANES | 16.3% | 6.15 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | AUGUST MOON | 10.6% | 9.44 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | ETERNAL BLOOM | 7.8% | 12.74 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | PROSECCO | 7.7% | 12.92 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | GOOD BEAUTY | 6.6% | 15.19 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | BIRDSVILLE | 3.9% | 25.52 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | TOUCH FAITH | 3.6% | 27.79 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | SUPER AXIOM | 2.7% | 37.61 | 7 |
| 11 | 6 | NOBLE DESIRE | 1.8% | 55.45 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | TUNG HAYE HAYE | 1.2% | 84.56 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 110
PLACE
1 28.5
5 22
10 30.5
QUINELLA
5,10 267.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 100.5
1,10 125.5
5,10 94
FORECAST
10,5 703
TIERCE
10,5,1 5,506
TRIO
1,5,10 620
FIRST 4
1,2,5,10 1,281
QUARTET
10,5,1,2 35,311
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,7/1,5,10 172,290
3 PICK 1
A2 37.5
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
7/5 270
7/10 2,642