沙田 · 2022-04-24 · 18:02
第 11場
2022-04-24沙田第11場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、D A Hayes訓練的LUCKY WITH YOU勝出，贏出3/4。CORDYCEPS SIX獲得亞軍；ROCK YA HEART獲得季軍。2.6倍大熱門CORDYCEPS SIX跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LUCKY WITH YOU 1.08.21 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 6 | 5.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | CORDYCEPS SIX B B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 10 | 2.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | ROCK YA HEART TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 1 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | BLAZE WARRIOR B/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 3.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | TRILLION WIN CP-/B1 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 13 | 25.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 8 | 9.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | MAJESTIC STAR C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 12 | 31.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | DUKE WAI B/H M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 33.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | RED DESERT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 64.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | METRO WARRIOR B H W Lai · D A Hayes | H W Lai | D A Hayes | 4 | 90.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | WINNING DREAMER C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 9 | 21.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | KING LAND TT1 M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 7 | 27.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | THE RUNNER V C Wong · F C Lor | C Wong | F C Lor | 5 | 123.0 | 9-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BLAZE WARRIOR | 28.0% | 3.58 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | CORDYCEPS SIX | 13.0% | 7.70 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | ROCK YA HEART | 10.3% | 9.69 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 8.7% | 11.44 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM | 8.4% | 11.92 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | MAJESTIC STAR | 7.0% | 14.23 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | TRILLION WIN | 4.9% | 20.31 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | RED DESERT | 4.6% | 21.83 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | WINNING DREAMER | 3.8% | 26.02 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | KING LAND | 3.6% | 28.11 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | DUKE WAI | 3.4% | 29.62 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | THE RUNNER | 2.6% | 37.82 | 13 |
| 13 | 13 | METRO WARRIOR | 1.6% | 61.04 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 52.5
PLACE
4 14
10 37.5
11 20
QUINELLA
4,11 96
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 75.5
4,11 36.5
10,11 134.5
FORECAST
11,4 249
TIERCE
11,4,10 2,179
TRIO
4,10,11 402
FIRST 4
3,4,10,11 240
QUARTET
11,4,10,3 8,024
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
12/4 72
12/11 931
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 29
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,12/4,10,11 29,617
SIX UP
2,8,9/8,14/1,8/3,8/3,12/4,11 6,364
2,8/14/1/8/12/11 784,497
4 [B Shinn] —
TREBLE
8/12/4 201
8/12/11 1,980