沙田 · 2022-05-04 · 20:46
第 5場
2022-05-04沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由K Teetan策騎、A S Cruz訓練的LADY FIRST勝出，贏出1-1/4。SUPER WIN DRAGON獲得亞軍；E BROTHER獲得季軍。4.1倍大熱門E BROTHER跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT 1.08.41 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 6 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | E BROTHER B/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 9 | 4.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | MOERAKI B/TT1 M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 11 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | THE MULTIPLIER CP/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes | M F Poon | D A Hayes | 8 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | NOBODY KNOWS H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 2 | 40.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | COOLCELEB B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 1 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 10 | 56.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | HAPPY TANGO B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 3 | 9.1 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | YELLOWFIN Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 4 | 5.6 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | WHISKEY NEAT TT V Borges · C Fownes | V Borges | C Fownes | 12 | 16.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | BIG HAPPINESS H1/TT1 K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 7 | 32.0 | 22-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | YELLOWFIN | 34.1% | 2.93 | 10 |
| 2 | 7 | E BROTHER | 15.2% | 6.56 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | LADY FIRST | 14.4% | 6.95 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 6.6% | 15.04 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | WHISKEY NEAT | 5.5% | 18.08 | 11 |
| 6 | 6 | MOERAKI | 5.2% | 19.34 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 4.0% | 25.02 | 8 |
| 8 | 2 | HAPPY TANGO | 3.9% | 25.58 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | COOLCELEB | 3.6% | 27.45 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | THE MULTIPLIER | 3.3% | 30.46 | 5 |
| 11 | 8 | NOBODY KNOWS | 2.5% | 40.55 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | BIG HAPPINESS | 1.7% | 60.45 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 115
PLACE
3 18
7 18
11 28
QUINELLA
3,11 229.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 50
3,11 81
7,11 71
FORECAST
11,3 508
TIERCE
11,3,7 2,870
TRIO
3,7,11 341
FIRST 4
3,6,7,11 876
QUARTET
11,3,7,6 23,603
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,7,10/3,7,11 7,872
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 26.5
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
4/3 62.5
4/11 728.5