跑馬地 · 2022-07-13 · 21:16
第 6場
2022-07-13跑馬地第6場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由M F Poon策騎、K L Man訓練的HERO STAR勝出，贏出1-1/4。WOOD ON FIRE獲得亞軍；GALLANT WAKING獲得季軍。2.8倍大熱門DURHAM STAR跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HERO STAR TT 1.09.73 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 8 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 12 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | GALLANT WAKING XB1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 7.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | SHADOW RUNNER TT A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 50.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | HERCULES B/XB/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 5 | 16.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | DURHAM STAR B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 2.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 9 | 33.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | TIMESTORM XB/TT J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 1 | 5.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | REGENCY STAR CP H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 55.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | WIND SPEEDER K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 10 | 24.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | SMART LEADER B/TT L Currie · W Y So | L Currie | W Y So | 6 | 32.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | ARES V K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 4 | 7.4 | 9-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | TIMESTORM | 29.5% | 3.39 | 8 |
| 2 | 6 | DURHAM STAR | 14.4% | 6.93 | 6 |
| 3 | 12 | ARES | 11.3% | 8.81 | 12 |
| 4 | 1 | WOOD ON FIRE | 7.2% | 13.91 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | WIND SPEEDER | 6.9% | 14.59 | 10 |
| 6 | 10 | HERO STAR | 6.5% | 15.31 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | HERCULES | 6.0% | 16.66 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | SMART LEADER | 5.3% | 18.99 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | GALLANT WAKING | 4.8% | 20.87 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | SHADOW RUNNER | 4.3% | 23.37 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | REGENCY STAR | 2.3% | 44.20 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | PERFECT PEACH | 1.6% | 63.98 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 68
PLACE
1 41.5
2 30
10 20.5
QUINELLA
1,10 518.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 210.5
1,10 167
2,10 135.5
FORECAST
10,1 895
TIERCE
10,1,2 9,289
TRIO
1,2,10 1,780
FIRST 4
1,2,7,10 11,665
QUARTET
10,1,2,7 252,103
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 24
A1 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
12/1 723.5
12/10 4,179