跑馬地 · 2022-10-12 · 22:52
第 9場
2022-10-12跑馬地第9場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K H Chan策騎、C Fownes訓練的SUGAR SUGAR勝出，贏出SH。HARMONY N HOME獲得亞軍；LORIZ獲得季軍。頭馬以4.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUGAR SUGAR B/TT 1.09.99 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 4.1 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | HARMONY N HOME Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 3 | 4.3 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | LORIZ A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 1 | 6.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | DURHAM STAR B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 6.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | RIVER VIEWS C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 21.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | HAPPY TANGO B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 2 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | FIGHTING STAR B/XB/TT R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 4 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 6 | 36.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | YOUNG VICTORY TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 8 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | HOODABUTTA M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 10 | 82.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPY MATADOR B/XB/TT V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 11 | 101.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | TOUCH FAITH A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 5 | 12.0 | 8-1/4 |
| — | 0 | BRAVE DREAMS S De Sousa · A S Cruz | S De Sousa | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HARMONY N HOME | 27.3% | 3.66 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | SUGAR SUGAR | 15.8% | 6.34 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | TOUCH FAITH | 9.6% | 10.47 | 12 |
| 4 | 9 | YOUNG VICTORY | 8.1% | 12.32 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | DURHAM STAR | 7.6% | 13.13 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | FIGHTING STAR | 7.5% | 13.36 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | RIVER VIEWS | 5.6% | 17.81 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 5.5% | 18.12 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | HAPPY TANGO | 5.3% | 18.95 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | LORIZ | 5.0% | 19.84 | 3 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPY MATADOR | 1.4% | 70.06 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | HOODABUTTA | 1.3% | 78.49 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 41.5
PLACE
2 16
3 18.5
10 22
QUINELLA
2,3 114.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 47.5
2,10 43.5
3,10 67
FORECAST
3,2 197
TIERCE
3,2,10 1,266
TRIO
2,3,10 228
FIRST 4
1,2,3,10 274
QUARTET
3,2,10,1 4,399
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 21
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,10,11/2,3,10 58,091
8TH DOUBLE
5/2 29
5/3 308.5
SIX UP
2,5/6,11/5,12/4,6/5,11/2,3 8,499
2/11/5/4/5/3 208,923
1 [C Fownes] —
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
4/5/2 40
4/5/3 397