沙田 · 2022-11-20 · 14:18
第 4場
2022-11-20沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、K L Man訓練的CIRCUIT MIGHTY勝出，贏出1-1/4。SPLENDID LIVING獲得亞軍；WAR WEAPON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY 後段發力 TT 1.21.35 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 2 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | SPLENDID LIVING 後段發力 TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 14 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | WAR WEAPON 後段發力 TT H Bowman · W Y So | H Bowman | W Y So | 11 | 6.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | HELENE ALLIBOR 後段發力 B/TT2 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 1 | 36.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | TURBO POWER 後段發力 P-/B1 R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 13 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | HORSESAIN BOLT 後段發力 B/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 10 | 4.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | COMMANDING MISSILE 後段發力 B/H/TT C L Chau · J Richards | C L Chau | J Richards | 9 | 42.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | EQUILIBRIUM TURBO B-/H M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 5 | 32.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | KING ECCELLENTE H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | COMING PATCH 後段發力 V S De Sousa · K H Ting | S De Sousa | K H Ting | 3 | 26.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO 早段領放 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 48.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | PEAK TO PEAK PC/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 4 | 7.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT1 H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 12 | 101.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT J McNeil · T P Yung | J McNeil | T P Yung | 8 | 91.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 24.4% | 4.09 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | COMING PATCH | 9.0% | 11.11 | 10 |
| 3 | 10 | PEAK TO PEAK | 8.3% | 12.01 | 12 |
| 4 | 1 | HORSESAIN BOLT | 8.1% | 12.32 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | HELENE ALLIBOR | 8.0% | 12.43 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | WAR WEAPON | 7.7% | 13.02 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | EQUILIBRIUM TURBO | 5.6% | 17.72 | 8 |
| 8 | 11 | SPLENDID LIVING | 5.4% | 18.59 | 2 |
| 9 | 9 | TURBO POWER | 5.3% | 18.92 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | KING ECCELLENTE | 5.2% | 19.15 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 4.4% | 22.71 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 3.5% | 28.55 | 7 |
| 13 | 14 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 3.0% | 33.33 | 14 |
| 14 | 13 | SUPERB MOVE | 1.9% | 51.61 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 30.5
PLACE
6 23.5
7 14.5
11 34
QUINELLA
7,11 183.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 43.5
6,11 100
7,11 71.5
FORECAST
7,11 320
TIERCE
7,11,6 1,700
TRIO
6,7,11 311
FIRST 4
5,6,7,11 2,528
QUARTET
7,11,6,5 32,704
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,10/6,7,11 11,580
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19
3RD DOUBLE
2/7 51.5
2/11 64.5