沙田 · 2022-11-20 · 15:41
第 6場
2022-11-20沙田第6場，Group 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、K L Man訓練的LUCKY SWEYNESSE勝出，贏出N。LUCKY PATCH獲得亞軍；DUKE WAI獲得季軍。1.9倍大熱門WELLINGTON跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.07.55 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 11 | 4.5 | N |
| 2 | 4 | LUCKY PATCH V-/H/B2/TT1 C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 2 | 31.0 | N |
| 3 | 12 | DUKE WAI B-/H/V1 H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 9 | 69.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SIGHT SUCCESS E V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 10 | 81.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | CORDYCEPS SIX B S De Sousa · R Gibson | S De Sousa | R Gibson | 8 | 8.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | WELLINGTON XB A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 7 | 1.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | STRONGER SR/XB/CP2 C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 1 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 13 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | SUPER WEALTHY CP J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 4 | 11.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | COURIER WONDER H H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 6 | 14.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 6 | COMPUTER PATCH CP/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 14 | 133.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 14 | WINNING DREAMER L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 3 | 103.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | KURPANY B/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 5 | 182.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 9 | MASTER EIGHT TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 12 | 70.0 | 13-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 42.4% | 2.36 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | WELLINGTON | 13.4% | 7.44 | 6 |
| 3 | 10 | CORDYCEPS SIX | 10.8% | 9.25 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | SUPER WEALTHY | 6.7% | 14.98 | 9 |
| 5 | 7 | COURIER WONDER | 4.0% | 25.08 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | DUKE WAI | 3.4% | 29.03 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | MASTER EIGHT | 3.2% | 30.94 | 14 |
| 8 | 4 | LUCKY PATCH | 3.0% | 33.80 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | COMPUTER PATCH | 2.7% | 36.42 | 11 |
| 10 | 2 | SKY FIELD | 2.5% | 40.42 | 8 |
| 11 | 14 | WINNING DREAMER | 2.5% | 40.52 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | STRONGER | 2.2% | 46.39 | 7 |
| 13 | 8 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 1.9% | 52.65 | 4 |
| 14 | 13 | KURPANY | 1.3% | 74.92 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 45
PLACE
4 55
11 18
12 121
QUINELLA
4,11 569.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,11 168
4,12 1,126
11,12 267.5
FORECAST
11,4 1,179
TIERCE
11,4,12 22,394
TRIO
4,11,12 4,836
FIRST 4
4,8,11,12 50,519
QUARTET
11,4,12,8 386,553
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 23.5
5TH DOUBLE
9/4 172.5
9/11 124
TRIPLE TRIO
6,7,11/6,8,9/4,11,12 4,333,297
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
6,7,11/6,8,9/Any Combination 660