沙田 · 2022-12-11 · 14:53
第 5場
2022-12-11沙田第5場，Group 1，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由R Moore策騎、R Gibson訓練的WELLINGTON勝出，贏出3/4。SIGHT SUCCESS獲得亞軍；SKY FIELD獲得季軍。1.9倍大熱門LUCKY SWEYNESSE跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WELLINGTON XB 1.08.76 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） R Moore · R Gibson | R Moore | R Gibson | 10 | 4.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | SIGHT SUCCESS E C Lemaire · J Size | C Lemaire | J Size | 6 | 15.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 11 | 34.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | COURIER WONDER H L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 9 | 104.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 13 | MEIKEI YELL H/P J McDonald · H Take | J McDonald | H Take | 14 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 3 | 1.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | CORDYCEPS SIX B S De Sousa · R Gibson | S De Sousa | R Gibson | 13 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SUPER WEALTHY CP- C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 7 | 62.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | STRONGER CP/SR/XB H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 5 | 59.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | NARAN HULEG K Maruta · Y Munakata | K Maruta | Y Munakata | 2 | 33.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 9 | DUKE WAI H/V H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 12 | 59.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | GENDARME B D Lane · Y Ikee | D Lane | Y Ikee | 8 | 28.0 | 5 |
| 13 | 14 | RESISTENCIA J Moreira · T Matsushita | J Moreira | T Matsushita | 1 | 9.1 | 6-1/4 |
| 14 | 8 | LIM'S KOSCIUSZKO XB D Beasley · D Meagher | D Beasley | D Meagher | 4 | 50.0 | 6-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 27.3% | 3.67 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | WELLINGTON | 17.2% | 5.82 | 1 |
| 3 | 14 | RESISTENCIA | 10.4% | 9.66 | 13 |
| 4 | 10 | CORDYCEPS SIX | 8.8% | 11.33 | 7 |
| 5 | 13 | MEIKEI YELL | 5.1% | 19.80 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | NARAN HULEG | 4.9% | 20.28 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | SUPER WEALTHY | 4.1% | 24.58 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | DUKE WAI | 3.5% | 28.55 | 11 |
| 9 | 3 | GENDARME | 3.5% | 28.93 | 12 |
| 10 | 2 | SKY FIELD | 3.4% | 29.69 | 3 |
| 11 | 11 | COURIER WONDER | 3.2% | 31.04 | 4 |
| 12 | 7 | STRONGER | 3.0% | 32.99 | 9 |
| 13 | 12 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 2.9% | 34.34 | 2 |
| 14 | 8 | LIM'S KOSCIUSZKO | 2.8% | 35.23 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 41.5
PLACE
1 17
2 60
12 35.5
QUINELLA
1,12 314.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 124.5
1,12 91.5
2,12 334.5
FORECAST
1,12 618
TIERCE
1,12,2 5,569
TRIO
1,2,12 1,554
FIRST 4
1,2,11,12 17,981
QUARTET
1,12,2,11 168,754
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 13
4TH DOUBLE
9/1 351.5
9/12 269.5