沙田 · 2022-12-11 · 18:03
第 10場
2022-12-11沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由R Moore策騎、J Size訓練的BLAZE WARRIOR勝出，贏出N。BEAUTY LIVE獲得亞軍；ORIENTAL SMOKE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.4倍大熱門THE IRISHMAN跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BLAZE WARRIOR 後段發力 B/TT 1.22.10 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 11 | 9.7 | N |
| 2 | 10 | BEAUTY LIVE 後段發力 TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 3 | 5.5 | N |
| 3 | 9 | ORIENTAL SMOKE 早段領放 B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 7 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 13 | VIVA CHALEUR 後段發力 TT C Lemaire · C Fownes | C Lemaire | C Fownes | 13 | 27.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY 後段發力 H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 12 | 20.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | CIRCUIT STELLAR H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 1 | 6.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | WINNING METHOD 後段發力 TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 14 | 20.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | LUCKY WITH YOU H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 9 | 22.0 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | EASON 後段發力 B-/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 10 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | SHINING GEM B L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 6 | 70.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 4 | THE IRISHMAN H/XB/TT B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 5 | 3.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | KING LAND J McNeil · T P Yung | J McNeil | T P Yung | 2 | 24.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 13.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | SILVER EXPRESS B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 116.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 18.7% | 5.36 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | CIRCUIT STELLAR | 12.0% | 8.33 | 6 |
| 3 | 10 | BEAUTY LIVE | 10.9% | 9.20 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 10.5% | 9.50 | 13 |
| 5 | 2 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 10.3% | 9.72 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | THE IRISHMAN | 7.7% | 13.02 | 11 |
| 7 | 11 | EASON | 6.2% | 16.22 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | KING LAND | 6.0% | 16.73 | 12 |
| 9 | 3 | BLAZE WARRIOR | 4.6% | 21.59 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 4.5% | 22.08 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | WINNING METHOD | 3.5% | 28.48 | 7 |
| 12 | 14 | SHINING GEM | 2.3% | 44.21 | 10 |
| 13 | 7 | SILVER EXPRESS | 1.6% | 63.67 | 14 |
| 14 | 13 | VIVA CHALEUR | 1.3% | 75.86 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 97
PLACE
3 30.5
9 43.5
10 19.5
QUINELLA
3,10 309.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 255
3,10 105
9,10 148.5
FORECAST
3,10 541
TIERCE
3,10,9 8,796
TRIO
3,9,10 1,627
FIRST 4
3,9,10,13 6,525
QUARTET
3,10,9,13 126,502
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 39.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,12/3,9,10 14,932
9TH DOUBLE
12/3 493
12/10 106
SIX UP
1/3/2/2/12/3 15,763
1,12/3,6/1,2/2,6/6,12/3,10 540
1 [Z Purton] —
1 [J Size] —
TREBLE
2/12/3 1,387
2/12/10 381