Sha Tin · 2022-12-11 · 18:03
Race 10
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | BLAZE WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 11 | 9.7 | N |
| 2 | 0 | BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 3 | 5.5 | N |
| 3 | 0 | ORIENTAL SMOKE Led early B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 7 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 12 | 20.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | CIRCUIT STELLAR H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 1 | 6.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | WINNING METHOD Closed strongly TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 14 | 20.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | EASON Closed strongly B-/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 10 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | SHINING GEM B L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 6 | 70.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 0 | THE IRISHMAN H/XB/TT B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 5 | 3.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | KING LAND J McNeil · T P Yung | J McNeil | T P Yung | 2 | 24.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 13 | 0 | IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 13.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 0 | SILVER EXPRESS B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 116.0 | 11 |
| — | 0 | LUCKY WITH YOU H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | — | 22.0 | 2 |
| — | 0 | VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly TT C Lemaire · C Fownes | C Lemaire | C Fownes | — | 27.0 | 1 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-11 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BLAZE WARRIOR, ridden by R Moore and trained by J Size, won by N, with BEAUTY LIVE second and ORIENTAL SMOKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite THE IRISHMAN finished 11th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 18.7% | 5.36 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | CIRCUIT STELLAR | 12.0% | 8.33 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | BEAUTY LIVE | 10.9% | 9.20 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 10.5% | 9.50 | 13 |
| 5 | 0 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 10.3% | 9.72 | — |
| 6 | 0 | THE IRISHMAN | 7.7% | 13.02 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | EASON | 6.2% | 16.22 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | KING LAND | 6.0% | 16.73 | 12 |
| 9 | 0 | BLAZE WARRIOR | 4.6% | 21.59 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 4.5% | 22.08 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | WINNING METHOD | 3.5% | 28.48 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | SHINING GEM | 2.3% | 44.21 | 10 |
| 13 | 0 | SILVER EXPRESS | 1.6% | 63.67 | 14 |
| 14 | 0 | VIVA CHALEUR | 1.3% | 75.86 | — |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 97
PLACE
3 30.5
9 43.5
10 19.5
QUINELLA
3,10 309.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 255
3,10 105
9,10 148.5
FORECAST
3,10 541
TIERCE
3,10,9 8,796
TRIO
3,9,10 1,627
FIRST 4
3,9,10,13 6,525
QUARTET
3,10,9,13 126,502
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 39.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,12/3,9,10 14,932
9TH DOUBLE
12/3 493
12/10 106
SIX UP
1/3/2/2/12/3 15,763
1,12/3,6/1,2/2,6/6,12/3,10 540
1 [Z Purton] —
1 [J Size] —
TREBLE
2/12/3 1,387
2/12/10 381