Sha Tin · 2022-12-11 · 12:56

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY STRIDE, ridden by C Lemaire and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/2, with REGENCY BO BO second and MARVEL DRAGON third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.52

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	MIGHTY STRIDE 1.09.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Lemaire · P F Yiu	C Lemaire	P F Yiu	9	132 lb	2.3	2-1/2
2	3	REGENCY BO BO B/TT B Shinn · C S Shum	B Shinn	C S Shum	7	132 lb	14.0	2-1/2
2	13	MARVEL DRAGON TT C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	5	120 lb	10.0	2-1/2
4	8	NICETOBEMET Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	10	125 lb	2.6	4
5	14	SNOWALOT B2 L Currie · D A Hayes	L Currie	D A Hayes	12	120 lb	35.0	4-1/2
6	1	THE HULK J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	14	133 lb	15.0	5-1/4
7	12	TURBO POWER B C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	4	123 lb	13.0	5-1/4
8	9	TOGEPI L Ferraris · A T Millard	L Ferraris	A T Millard	2	125 lb	154.0	7-3/4
9	10	GLENEALY GENERALS B/XB H Bentley · C H Yip	H Bentley	C H Yip	6	124 lb	78.0	8-1/2
10	7	HOSS XB L Hewitson · J Richards	L Hewitson	J Richards	3	125 lb	136.0	10-3/4
11	4	RIGHT HONOURABLE H/PC/TT R Maia · R Gibson	R Maia	R Gibson	13	128 lb	84.0	13-1/4
12	5	WIND SPEEDER XB- K C Leung · Y S Tsui	K C Leung	Y S Tsui	8	127 lb	178.0	14-3/4
13	6	EAGLE RUN B1 K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	1	125 lb	40.0	17-1/4
14	11	POLYMER GLORIOUS SR H N Wong · K H Ting	H N Wong	K H Ting	11	121 lb	299.0	17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick MIGHTY STRIDE (30.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	MIGHTY STRIDE	30.4%	3.29	1	2.3
2	8	NICETOBEMET	18.9%	5.29	4	2.6
3	6	EAGLE RUN	8.4%	11.89	13	40.0
4	12	TURBO POWER	7.5%	13.33	7	13.0
5	13	MARVEL DRAGON	7.5%	13.36	2	10.0
6	1	THE HULK	5.7%	17.61	6	15.0
7	3	REGENCY BO BO	5.0%	20.10	2	14.0
8	14	SNOWALOT	4.6%	21.70	5	35.0
9	9	TOGEPI	3.1%	32.01	8	154.0
10	10	GLENEALY GENERALS	2.7%	37.27	9	78.0
11	7	HOSS	2.4%	41.18	10	136.0
12	4	RIGHT HONOURABLE	1.3%	76.88	11	84.0
13	5	WIND SPEEDER	1.3%	77.61	12	178.0
14	11	POLYMER GLORIOUS	1.2%	81.17	14	299.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 23.5

PLACE

2 12

3 31

13 25

QUINELLA

2,3 57.5

2,13 50.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 45

2,13 40.5

3,13 119.5

FORECAST

2,3 93

2,13 70

TIERCE

2,3,13 437

2,13,3 479

TRIO

2,3,13 304

FIRST 4

2,3,8,13 150

QUARTET

2,3,13,8 1,401

2,13,3,8 1,406

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/2 109.5

1/3 60.5

1/13 84

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 12.5

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