Sha Tin · 2022-12-11 · 14:13
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-11 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. WIN MARILYN, ridden by D Lane and trained by T Tezuka, won by 1-1/2, with BOTANIK second and GLORY VASE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite STONE AGE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | WIN MARILYN Closed strongly H 2.27.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) D Lane · T Tezuka | D Lane | T Tezuka | 3 | 6.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | BOTANIK Closed strongly W Buick · A Fabre | W Buick | A Fabre | 5 | 8.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | GLORY VASE Closed strongly XB J Moreira · T Ozeki | J Moreira | T Ozeki | 4 | 3.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | PANFIELD Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 9 | 58.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | STONE AGE XB R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 1 | 2.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | BUBBLE GIFT Closed strongly CP-/SR2/TT C Lemaire · M Delzangles | C Lemaire | M Delzangles | 2 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | SENOR TOBA Led early V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 16.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | BROOME Y Take · A P O'Brien | Y Take | A P O'Brien | 6 | 25.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | BUTTERFIELD CP/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum | S De Sousa | C S Shum | 8 | 40.0 | 9-1/2 |
| — | 4 | MENDOCINO E/XB R Piechulek · S Steinberg | R Piechulek | S Steinberg | 7 | 43.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | GLORY VASE | 23.6% | 4.23 | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | STONE AGE | 18.0% | 5.56 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | SENOR TOBA | 13.7% | 7.31 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | BUBBLE GIFT | 9.3% | 10.72 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | BOTANIK | 7.7% | 12.91 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | BROOME | 7.7% | 13.01 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | BUTTERFIELD | 7.5% | 13.30 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | PANFIELD | 6.6% | 15.11 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | WIN MARILYN | 5.8% | 17.21 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 65.5
PLACE
3 16
5 21
9 20
QUINELLA
5,9 288
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 56
3,9 59.5
5,9 91
FORECAST
9,5 630
TIERCE
9,5,3 2,793
TRIO
3,5,9 430
FIRST 4
3,5,7,9 2,231
QUARTET
9,5,3,7 58,126
All pools (4 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
7,11,14/3,5,9 167,542
3 PICK 1
A2 30.5
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
14/5 49.5
14/9 294
WINNING REGION
C2 23.5
C4 —
C1 —
C3 —