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Sha Tin · 2022-12-11 · 15:26

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-11 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SWEET ENCOUNTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with SECRET VISION second and CHAMPION DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.47.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly 1.47.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 2 1.7 1-1/4
2 6 SECRET VISION Closed strongly TT J McDonald · C S Shum 5 8.1 1-1/4
3 1 CHAMPION DRAGON Led early H/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz 14 15.0 2-3/4
4 4 WOODFIRE BRO H/TT K C Leung · L Ho 8 5.4 3-1/2
5 10 LOOKING COOL PC M Chadwick · F C Lor 4 26.0 4-1/2
6 2 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly CP-/SR-/XB/B2/TT B Shinn · D J Whyte 11 34.0 7
7 9 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu 9 11.0 8-1/2
8 5 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 13 42.0 10
9 14 BILLIONAIRE SECRET H/PC/TT1 H Bentley · P C Ng 1 50.0 10-1/4
10 12 DEAR SIBLING Closed strongly B M F Poon · K L Man 6 198.0 12-3/4
11 8 ENTRUSTED CP/TT J McNeil · W Y So 10 60.0 14-3/4
12 7 SWAN BAY Closed strongly L Currie · D A Hayes 12 150.0 17-1/4
13 13 BLASTOISE K Teetan · A T Millard 3 43.0 19
14 11 ROUND THE EARTH B C Y Ho · D J Hall 7 46.0 39-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWEET ENCOUNTER—2. SECRET VISION+1.25L3. CHAMPION DRAGON+2.75L4. WOODFIRE BRO+3.5L5. LOOKING COOL+4.5L6. S J TOURBILLON+7L7. POWERFUL WINGS+8.5L8. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+10L9. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+10.25L10. DEAR SIBLING+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SWEET ENCOUNTER (49.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SWEET ENCOUNTER 49.5% 2.02 1
2 4 WOODFIRE BRO 11.6% 8.58 4
3 9 POWERFUL WINGS 5.4% 18.68 7
4 13 BLASTOISE 5.1% 19.74 13
5 1 CHAMPION DRAGON 4.7% 21.46 3
6 6 SECRET VISION 4.3% 23.34 2
7 10 LOOKING COOL 4.1% 24.20 5
8 5 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 3.5% 28.69 8
9 8 ENTRUSTED 3.1% 31.79 11
10 7 SWAN BAY 2.5% 39.91 12
11 11 ROUND THE EARTH 2.1% 48.12 14
12 2 S J TOURBILLON 2.0% 50.10 6
13 14 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 1.5% 65.15 9
14 12 DEAR SIBLING 0.6% 169.91 10
SWEET ENCOUNTER — wonWOODFIRE BROPOWERFUL WINGSBLASTOISECHAMPION DRAGONSECRET VISIONLOOKING COOLINVINCIBLE MISSILEENTRUSTEDSWAN BAYROUND THE EARTHS J TOURBILLONBILLIONAIRE SECRETDEAR SIBLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 17.5

PLACE

1 39

3 11.5

6 22

QUINELLA

3,6 75.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 80.5

1,6 183

3,6 34.5

FORECAST

3,6 128

TIERCE

3,6,1 1,214

TRIO

1,3,6 405

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 265

QUARTET

3,6,1,4 4,509

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 13.5

A3 —

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

1/3 76

1/6 64.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,5,9/1,2,12/1,3,6 9,127,279

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,9/1,2,12/Any Combination 13,629

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