Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-12-11 · 16:03

Race 7

Group 1 GOOD 1600m Course A 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-11 was Group 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with GOLDEN SIXTY second and LAWS OF INDICES third. The winner led throughout. The 1.5 favourite GOLDEN SIXTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.33.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Wire to wire TT 1.33.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 2 3.2 N
2 1 GOLDEN SIXTY Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 1.5 N
3 7 LAWS OF INDICES B2/XB/TT J McDonald · A Neasham 9 55.0 1-1/2
4 6 BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 5 24.0 5-1/4
5 8 MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly CP K C Leung · C S Shum 3 97.0 7-3/4
6 10 DANON SCORPION Closed strongly W Buick · T Yasuda 6 13.0 8-1/2
7 9 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly B A Hamelin · J Size 7 171.0 9-1/4
8 5 WAIKUKU S De Sousa · J Size 8 71.0 9-1/4
9 4 SCHNELL MEISTER C Lemaire · T Tezuka 1 13.0 14-1/4
3 SALIOS R Moore · N Hori

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE2. GOLDEN SIXTY+0.05L3. LAWS OF INDICES+1.5L4. BEAUTY JOY+5.25L5. MORE THAN THIS+7.75L6. DANON SCORPION+8.5L7. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL+9.25L8. WAIKUKU+9.25L9. SCHNELL MEISTER+14.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA SPANGLE (43.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE 43.0% 2.32 1
2 1 GOLDEN SIXTY 25.4% 3.94 2
3 6 BEAUTY JOY 11.8% 8.48 4
4 4 SCHNELL MEISTER 5.8% 17.37 9
5 10 DANON SCORPION 4.1% 24.38 6
6 7 LAWS OF INDICES 4.0% 24.99 3
7 5 WAIKUKU 3.1% 31.75 8
8 8 MORE THAN THIS 1.7% 57.27 5
9 9 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 1.0% 97.04 7
CALIFORNIA SPANGLE — wonGOLDEN SIXTYBEAUTY JOYSCHNELL MEISTERDANON SCORPIONLAWS OF INDICESWAIKUKUMORE THAN THISEXCELLENT PROPOSAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 32

PLACE

1 10.1

2 11

7 78

QUINELLA

1,2 18

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 12

1,7 92.5

2,7 117.5

FORECAST

2,1 57

TIERCE

2,1,7 570

TRIO

1,2,7 93

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 203

QUARTET

2,1,7,6 3,085

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,6/1,2,7 7,722

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A3

A1

6TH DOUBLE

3/1 10.5

3/2 43