Sha Tin · 2022-12-11 · 12:26
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT MIGHTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by NOSE, with HORSESAIN BOLT second and RED TITAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite PERFECT PEACH finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY Closed strongly TT 1.22.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 10 | 4.4 | NOSE |
| 2 | 3 | HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum | S De Sousa | C S Shum | 14 | 9.3 | NOSE |
| 3 | 4 | RED TITAN Closed strongly H/TT R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 9 | 9.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | PERFETTO Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 11 | 84.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT1 K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 8 | 30.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | WIDE BLUE YONDER Closed strongly CP/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 13 | 8.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | COMING PATCH Closed strongly V- A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 4 | 148.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | HAPPY LAND Closed strongly B/TT C Lemaire · T P Yung | C Lemaire | T P Yung | 5 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | ADEFILL B-/CP2 K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 2 | 8.4 | 8 |
| 10 | 14 | BLUSTITCH B/TT H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 6 | 127.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 1 | 2.7 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | FOREVER FOLKS Y Take · C W Chang | Y Take | C W Chang | 3 | 145.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | MAXIMIZE HEART B R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 7 | 28.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 6 | COMMANDING MISSILE Led early B/H/TT C L Chau · J Richards | C L Chau | J Richards | 12 | 85.0 | 16-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | PERFECT PEACH | 18.4% | 5.44 | 11 |
| 2 | 12 | ADEFILL | 13.4% | 7.44 | 9 |
| 3 | 1 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 12.8% | 7.79 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | RED TITAN | 9.1% | 10.93 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | WIDE BLUE YONDER | 8.1% | 12.37 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | HORSESAIN BOLT | 7.9% | 12.63 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | HAPPY LAND | 7.2% | 13.97 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | MASTER OF FORTUNE | 4.7% | 21.50 | 5 |
| 9 | 6 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 4.5% | 22.21 | 14 |
| 10 | 7 | FOREVER FOLKS | 4.4% | 22.86 | 12 |
| 11 | 14 | BLUSTITCH | 3.0% | 32.88 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | COMING PATCH | 2.4% | 41.06 | 7 |
| 13 | 13 | MAXIMIZE HEART | 2.1% | 47.09 | 13 |
| 14 | 10 | PERFETTO | 1.9% | 53.23 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 44
PLACE
1 18
3 33
4 25.5
QUINELLA
1,3 221
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 82.5
1,4 76
3,4 130.5
FORECAST
1,3 495
TIERCE
1,3,4 2,361
TRIO
1,3,4 531
FIRST 4
1,3,4,10 7,300
QUARTET
1,3,4,10 72,585
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 17
A3 —