Sha Tin · 2022-12-11 · 12:26
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY Closed strongly TT 1.22.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 10 | 4.4 | NOSE |
| 2 | 0 | HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum | S De Sousa | C S Shum | 14 | 9.3 | NOSE |
| 3 | 0 | RED TITAN Closed strongly H/TT R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 9 | 9.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | PERFETTO Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 11 | 84.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT1 K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 8 | 30.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | WIDE BLUE YONDER Closed strongly CP/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 13 | 8.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | COMING PATCH Closed strongly V- A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 4 | 148.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | HAPPY LAND Closed strongly B/TT C Lemaire · T P Yung | C Lemaire | T P Yung | 5 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | ADEFILL B-/CP2 K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 2 | 8.4 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | BLUSTITCH B/TT H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 6 | 127.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 0 | MAXIMIZE HEART B R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 7 | 28.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 0 | COMMANDING MISSILE Led early B/H/TT C L Chau · J Richards | C L Chau | J Richards | 12 | 85.0 | 16-3/4 |
| — | 0 | PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | — | 2.7 | 9-1/4 |
| — | 0 | FOREVER FOLKS Y Take · C W Chang | Y Take | C W Chang | — | 145.0 | 10-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT MIGHTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by NOSE, with HORSESAIN BOLT second and RED TITAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite PERFECT PEACH did not finish.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | PERFECT PEACH | 18.4% | 5.44 | — |
| 2 | 0 | ADEFILL | 13.4% | 7.44 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 12.8% | 7.79 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | RED TITAN | 9.1% | 10.93 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | WIDE BLUE YONDER | 8.1% | 12.37 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | HORSESAIN BOLT | 7.9% | 12.63 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | HAPPY LAND | 7.2% | 13.97 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | MASTER OF FORTUNE | 4.7% | 21.50 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 4.5% | 22.21 | 14 |
| 10 | 0 | FOREVER FOLKS | 4.4% | 22.86 | — |
| 11 | 0 | BLUSTITCH | 3.0% | 32.88 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | COMING PATCH | 2.4% | 41.06 | 7 |
| 13 | 0 | MAXIMIZE HEART | 2.1% | 47.09 | 13 |
| 14 | 0 | PERFETTO | 1.9% | 53.23 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 44
PLACE
1 18
3 33
4 25.5
QUINELLA
1,3 221
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 82.5
1,4 76
3,4 130.5
FORECAST
1,3 495
TIERCE
1,3,4 2,361
TRIO
1,3,4 531
FIRST 4
1,3,4,10 7,300
QUARTET
1,3,4,10 72,585
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 17
A2 —