沙田 · 2023-02-05 · 17:53
第 10場
2023-02-05沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由L Hewitson策騎、D J Whyte訓練的DRAGON'S LUCK勝出，贏出3/4。MIGHTY STRIDE獲得亞軍；MARK THE MOMENT獲得季軍。1.6倍大熱門MIGHTY STRIDE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | DRAGON'S LUCK 1.09.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 5.9 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | MIGHTY STRIDE H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 8 | 1.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | MARK THE MOMENT V/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 7 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | NOT USUAL STAR H/TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 11 | 48.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | PHOENIX LIGHT H A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 10 | 21.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 14 | 92.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | NABOO LEGEND S De Sousa · D A Hayes | S De Sousa | D A Hayes | 3 | 32.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | GOLDEN EMPIRE C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 13 | GUMMY GUMMY B1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 90.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | READY TO WIN CP/XB/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 2 | 21.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 14 | ISLAND GOLDEN TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 13 | 104.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 2 | SAKEWIN CP A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 9 | 37.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 12 | MAN STAR V M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 1 | 108.0 | 12 |
| — | 0 | GOLDEN EXPRESS Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MIGHTY STRIDE | 25.6% | 3.90 | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | DRAGON'S LUCK | 13.7% | 7.32 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | READY TO WIN | 9.7% | 10.35 | 11 |
| 4 | 5 | NABOO LEGEND | 8.9% | 11.27 | 8 |
| 5 | 9 | GOLDEN EMPIRE | 8.1% | 12.29 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | MARK THE MOMENT | 7.6% | 13.10 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | PHOENIX LIGHT | 5.7% | 17.43 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | SAKEWIN | 5.4% | 18.62 | 13 |
| 9 | 3 | NOT USUAL STAR | 4.2% | 23.60 | 4 |
| 10 | 1 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 3.4% | 29.78 | 7 |
| 11 | 13 | GUMMY GUMMY | 2.8% | 35.83 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 1.8% | 55.97 | 12 |
| 13 | 12 | MAN STAR | 1.6% | 63.23 | 14 |
| 14 | 10 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 1.6% | 64.21 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 59.5
PLACE
4 35
6 10.1
8 19
QUINELLA
6,8 43.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 55
4,8 102.5
6,8 21.5
FORECAST
8,6 199
TIERCE
8,6,4 1,073
TRIO
4,6,8 163
FIRST 4
3,4,6,8 783
QUARTET
8,6,4,3 18,164
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 12.5
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
9,11,13/4,6,8 16,782
9TH DOUBLE
9/6 13
9/8 316.5
SIX UP
3,4/1,2/2,5/1,2/9,11/6,8 355
4/1/2/2/9/8 16,286
1 [Z Purton] —
9 [R Gibson] —
TREBLE
2/9/6 24
2/9/8 526