沙田 · 2023-04-09 · 13:06
第 2場
2023-04-09沙田第2場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由H Bowman策騎、C Fownes訓練的EL VALIENTE勝出，贏出1-1/4。TRAVEL GLORY獲得亞軍；GOLD COMET獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | EL VALIENTE 後段發力 TT 1.39.72 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 13 | TRAVEL GLORY 後段發力 B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 13 | 17.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | GOLD COMET 後段發力 B H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 2 | 8.5 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | SURE WIN WIN 後段發力 B L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 11 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | WIN WIN CHARITY 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 14 | 85.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 14 | SPLENDID STAR 後段發力 P1 V Borges · L Ho | V Borges | L Ho | 1 | 24.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | EUROMISSILE B/XB M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 7 | 33.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | COMPULSORY B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 8 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | RUN RUN GOOD 後段發力 B/TT C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 12 | 22.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | REGENCY GEM V/TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 3 | 9.5 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | CHIRON 後段發力 TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 6 | 4.9 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | BARON ZEE 早段領放 B/TT S De Sousa · R Gibson | S De Sousa | R Gibson | 4 | 13.0 | 13 |
| 13 | 2 | BELL OF VICTORY B/TT C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 9 | 84.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 14 | 3 | DREAM CATCHER B H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 10 | 159.0 | 16-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | EL VALIENTE | 21.5% | 4.64 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | CHIRON | 16.9% | 5.90 | 11 |
| 3 | 6 | RUN RUN GOOD | 10.6% | 9.45 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | COMPULSORY | 6.9% | 14.39 | 8 |
| 5 | 10 | REGENCY GEM | 6.9% | 14.48 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 | EUROMISSILE | 6.4% | 15.73 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | SURE WIN WIN | 5.9% | 17.08 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | BARON ZEE | 5.8% | 17.34 | 12 |
| 9 | 9 | GOLD COMET | 5.3% | 18.92 | 3 |
| 10 | 13 | TRAVEL GLORY | 5.1% | 19.67 | 2 |
| 11 | 14 | SPLENDID STAR | 2.6% | 37.88 | 6 |
| 12 | 2 | BELL OF VICTORY | 2.5% | 40.32 | 13 |
| 13 | 7 | WIN WIN CHARITY | 2.3% | 42.60 | 5 |
| 14 | 3 | DREAM CATCHER | 1.3% | 78.68 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 30
PLACE
4 15
9 26.5
13 43
QUINELLA
4,13 288
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 48.5
4,13 101
9,13 206.5
FORECAST
4,13 774
TIERCE
4,13,9 3,205
TRIO
4,9,13 450
FIRST 4
4,9,11,13 1,762
QUARTET
4,13,9,11 31,893
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE
5/4 128
5/13 153
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 18.5
A3 —