沙田 · 2023-07-03 · 22:53
第 8場
2023-07-03沙田第8場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO YIELDING。由L Hewitson策騎、D J Whyte訓練的FLAMING RABBIT勝出，贏出1-1/4。FIND MY LOVE獲得亞軍；SAUVESTRE獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.0倍大熱門A PAL跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FLAMING RABBIT 一路領先 SR/XB 1.22.39 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 6.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | FIND MY LOVE 後段發力 H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 1 | 7.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | SAUVESTRE TT L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 12 | 28.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 後段發力 H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 13 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | GALAXY WITNESS 後段發力 B- C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 9.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | CALIFORNIA TEN 後段發力 B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 4 | 39.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | A PAL CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 3.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 7 | 110.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | BRAVEHEARTS 後段發力 XB1/TT1 M Dee · J Richards | M Dee | J Richards | 2 | 60.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 13 | AMAZING VICTORY K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 3 | 14.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | FLYING ACE B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 8 | 4.5 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 10 | 216.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 11 | 169.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 2 | CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT H Bentley · K W Lui | H Bentley | K W Lui | 14 | 120.0 | 11-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FLYING ACE | 18.4% | 5.42 | 11 |
| 2 | 5 | A PAL | 15.3% | 6.52 | 7 |
| 3 | 6 | FLAMING RABBIT | 12.6% | 7.91 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE | 11.0% | 9.07 | 4 |
| 5 | 13 | AMAZING VICTORY | 9.7% | 10.36 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | FIND MY LOVE | 8.8% | 11.41 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | GALAXY WITNESS | 5.9% | 17.05 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 4.8% | 20.70 | 8 |
| 9 | 3 | SAUVESTRE | 3.9% | 25.79 | 3 |
| 10 | 12 | BRAVEHEARTS | 2.6% | 38.18 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | CALIFORNIA TEN | 2.4% | 41.18 | 6 |
| 12 | 2 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 2.1% | 47.94 | 14 |
| 13 | 14 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 1.2% | 81.90 | 13 |
| 14 | 10 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 1.2% | 82.81 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 61
PLACE
3 64.5
6 20
11 24
QUINELLA
6,11 214.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 198
3,11 235.5
6,11 70.5
FORECAST
6,11 403
TIERCE
6,11,3 5,126
TRIO
3,6,11 1,421
FIRST 4
1,3,6,11 2,378
QUARTET
6,11,3,1 39,486
全部彩池（另 5 項）
2ND TREBLE
7/3/6 6,756
7/3/11 2,260
3 PICK 1
A2 20.5
A3 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,9/3,6,11 434,052
7TH DOUBLE
3/6 144
3/11 33
SIX UP
3,4/2,6/3,6/7,12/3,9/6,11 5,874
4/2/3/7/3/6 106,362
1 [Z Purton] —
4 [D J Whyte] —