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Sha Tin · 2023-07-03 · 22:53

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-03 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. FLAMING RABBIT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/4, with FIND MY LOVE second and SAUVESTRE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.0 favourite A PAL finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 FLAMING RABBIT Wire to wire SR/XB 1.22.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 6.1 1-1/4
2 11 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 1 7.3 1-1/4
3 3 SAUVESTRE TT L Ferraris · F C Lor 12 28.0 2-1/4
4 1 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size 13 13.0 2-1/2
5 7 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly B- C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 9.6 2-3/4
6 9 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 4 39.0 4
7 5 A PAL CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 3.0 5
8 8 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT C L Chau · W Y So 7 110.0 5-1/2
9 12 BRAVEHEARTS Closed strongly XB1/TT1 M Dee · J Richards 2 60.0 6-3/4
10 13 AMAZING VICTORY K Teetan · L Ho 3 14.0 7
11 4 FLYING ACE B Z Purton · D J Hall 8 4.5 7-1/2
12 10 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB K H Chan · C Fownes 10 216.0 8-3/4
13 14 ORIENTAL SMOKE B L Currie · D A Hayes 11 169.0 8-3/4
14 2 CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT H Bentley · K W Lui 14 120.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLAMING RABBIT2. FIND MY LOVE+1.25L3. SAUVESTRE+2.25L4. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE+2.5L5. GALAXY WITNESS+2.75L6. CALIFORNIA TEN+4L7. A PAL+5L8. SUPER WIN DRAGON+5.5L9. BRAVEHEARTS+6.75L10. AMAZING VICTORY+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING ACE (18.4%) finished 11th — the winner FLAMING RABBIT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FLYING ACE 18.4% 5.42 11
2 5 A PAL 15.3% 6.52 7
3 6 FLAMING RABBIT 12.6% 7.91 1
4 1 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 11.0% 9.07 4
5 13 AMAZING VICTORY 9.7% 10.36 10
6 11 FIND MY LOVE 8.8% 11.41 2
7 7 GALAXY WITNESS 5.9% 17.05 5
8 8 SUPER WIN DRAGON 4.8% 20.70 8
9 3 SAUVESTRE 3.9% 25.79 3
10 12 BRAVEHEARTS 2.6% 38.18 9
11 9 CALIFORNIA TEN 2.4% 41.18 6
12 2 CHANCHENG PRINCE 2.1% 47.94 14
13 14 ORIENTAL SMOKE 1.2% 81.90 13
14 10 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 1.2% 82.81 12
FLYING ACEA PALFLAMING RABBIT — wonHOWDEEPISYOURLOVEAMAZING VICTORYFIND MY LOVEGALAXY WITNESSSUPER WIN DRAGONSAUVESTREBRAVEHEARTSCALIFORNIA TENCHANCHENG PRINCEORIENTAL SMOKEEXPLOSIVE WITNESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 61

PLACE

3 64.5

6 20

11 24

QUINELLA

6,11 214.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 198

3,11 235.5

6,11 70.5

FORECAST

6,11 403

TIERCE

6,11,3 5,126

TRIO

3,6,11 1,421

FIRST 4

1,3,6,11 2,378

QUARTET

6,11,3,1 39,486

All pools (5 more)

2ND TREBLE

7/3/6 6,756

7/3/11 2,260

3 PICK 1

A2 20.5

A3

A1

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,9/3,6,11 434,052

7TH DOUBLE

3/6 144

3/11 33

SIX UP

3,4/2,6/3,6/7,12/3,9/6,11 5,874

4/2/3/7/3/6 106,362

1 [Z Purton]

4 [D J Whyte]