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Sha Tin · 2023-07-03 · 22:18

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-03 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. HELENE FEELING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with E LEGEND second and BON'S A PEARLA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.36.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HELENE FEELING Closed strongly TT 1.36.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 11 3.1 N
2 9 E LEGEND Led early B Avdulla · K L Man 13 21.0 N
3 4 BON'S A PEARLA B C L Chau · P C Ng 2 24.0 1/2
4 7 LEADING FORTUNE B A Hamelin · J Size 10 15.0 3/4
5 8 SNAFFLES Closed strongly M F Poon · D A Hayes 3 47.0 2
6 10 CHEERY Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 7.7 2-3/4
7 5 BEAUTY MISSILE B H Bowman · F C Lor 5 4.5 2-3/4
8 2 CALIFORNIA VOCE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 10.0 2-3/4
9 1 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly B E C W Wong · C Fownes 1 26.0 3-1/2
10 14 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 12 25.0 3-3/4
11 11 NICHOLSON RETURNS B L Ferraris · D J Hall 9 9.6 4
12 13 ROMANTIC LAOS H/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 14 17.0 4-1/4
13 6 C P BRAVE CP-/B2/TT- M Dee · A T Millard 8 40.0 6
14 12 PACKING KNOCKHILL XB H Bentley · L Ho 7 162.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HELENE FEELING2. E LEGEND+0.05L3. BON'S A PEARLA+0.5L4. LEADING FORTUNE+0.75L5. SNAFFLES+2L6. CHEERY+2.75L7. BEAUTY MISSILE+2.75L8. CALIFORNIA VOCE+2.75L9. SUNNY STAR+3.5L10. ENTRUSTED+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HELENE FEELING (21.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 HELENE FEELING 21.7% 4.60 1
2 13 ROMANTIC LAOS 21.4% 4.68 12
3 5 BEAUTY MISSILE 12.1% 8.25 7
4 10 CHEERY 7.6% 13.15 6
5 11 NICHOLSON RETURNS 7.1% 14.13 11
6 2 CALIFORNIA VOCE 5.0% 20.10 8
7 1 SUNNY STAR 4.2% 23.67 9
8 14 ENTRUSTED 4.2% 24.02 10
9 9 E LEGEND 3.8% 26.01 2
10 7 LEADING FORTUNE 3.3% 30.46 4
11 8 SNAFFLES 3.2% 31.51 5
12 4 BON'S A PEARLA 3.0% 33.44 3
13 6 C P BRAVE 2.6% 37.99 13
14 12 PACKING KNOCKHILL 0.8% 121.00 14
HELENE FEELING — wonROMANTIC LAOSBEAUTY MISSILECHEERYNICHOLSON RETURNSCALIFORNIA VOCESUNNY STARENTRUSTEDE LEGENDLEADING FORTUNESNAFFLESBON'S A PEARLAC P BRAVEPACKING KNOCKHILL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 31

PLACE

3 15.5

4 53

9 53.5

QUINELLA

3,9 407

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 136.5

3,9 128

4,9 643

FORECAST

3,9 546

TIERCE

3,9,4 8,948

TRIO

3,4,9 2,258

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 8,381

QUARTET

3,9,4,7 83,557

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 18.5

6TH DOUBLE

7/3 1,278

7/9 1,447