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Sha Tin · 2023-07-03 · 20:46

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-03 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. ALL IS GOOD, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with KASI FARASI second and KING OF THE COURT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ALL IS GOOD Closed strongly B 1.22.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 3.3 1-3/4
2 6 KASI FARASI Closed strongly B H Bowman · C H Yip 3 5.6 1-3/4
3 9 KING OF THE COURT Closed strongly B H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 14.0 2
4 3 ALL RICHES Led early CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 12.0 3-3/4
5 8 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 12.0 5-1/4
6 4 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB/B2 M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 28.0 5-3/4
7 5 SAMARKAND CP/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 10 23.0 5-3/4
8 12 ACA POWER Closed strongly CP M Dee · D J Hall 1 11.0 8-1/4
9 10 REGENCY HAPPY STAR CP/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 161.0 8-3/4
10 11 GLUCK RACER Closed strongly B-/H1/V2/TT- A Badel · L Ho 8 12.0 11-3/4
11 1 UNPRESUMING B Z Purton · J Size 5 4.1 17
12 7 LEATHER VANGUARD C L Chau · T P Yung 4 95.0 38

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL IS GOOD2. KASI FARASI+1.75L3. KING OF THE COURT+2L4. ALL RICHES+3.75L5. DRAGON DELIGHT+5.25L6. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+5.75L7. SAMARKAND+5.75L8. ACA POWER+8.25L9. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+8.75L10. GLUCK RACER+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick UNPRESUMING (21.6%) finished 11th — the winner ALL IS GOOD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 UNPRESUMING 21.6% 4.62 11
2 2 ALL IS GOOD 17.0% 5.87 1
3 6 KASI FARASI 12.9% 7.75 2
4 12 ACA POWER 10.4% 9.62 8
5 9 KING OF THE COURT 9.7% 10.26 3
6 8 DRAGON DELIGHT 6.5% 15.31 5
7 3 ALL RICHES 5.9% 17.04 4
8 5 SAMARKAND 5.2% 19.08 7
9 4 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 4.6% 21.55 6
10 11 GLUCK RACER 3.4% 29.23 10
11 7 LEATHER VANGUARD 1.8% 56.17 12
12 10 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 0.8% 127.43 9
UNPRESUMINGALL IS GOOD — wonKASI FARASIACA POWERKING OF THE COURTDRAGON DELIGHTALL RICHESSAMARKANDRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEGLUCK RACERLEATHER VANGUARDREGENCY HAPPY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 33

PLACE

2 15.5

6 18

9 36.5

QUINELLA

2,6 101.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 39.5

2,9 83

6,9 99

FORECAST

2,6 157

TIERCE

2,6,9 1,039

TRIO

2,6,9 330

FIRST 4

2,3,6,9 639

QUARTET

2,6,9,3 8,047

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,10/2,6,9 11,877

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 18.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE

4/2 60

4/6 19