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Sha Tin · 2023-07-03 · 21:46

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.10.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT 1.10.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A S Cruz 8 22.0 3/4
2 0 SOLID SHALAA M Dee · D A Hayes 5 22.0 3/4
3 0 PULSAR STRIDER L Hewitson · T P Yung 11 9.4 1
4 0 EXCELLENT FIGHTER B/TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu 6 2.0 2
6 0 TORONADO PHANTOM TT A Badel · J Size 12 14.0 4-1/4
8 0 KEEP YOU WARM B/XB M L Yeung · K W Lui 2 86.0 4-3/4
9 0 AORAKI SUMMIT H Bentley · F C Lor 1 29.0 5-1/4
10 0 STREET SCREAM B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 10 27.0 6
11 0 MARK THE MOMENT V/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 4 4.2 7-3/4
12 0 KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 7 164.0 13
— 0 A AMERIC TE SPECSO K Teetan · J Size — 9.1 2-1/2
— 0 ALL ARE MINE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz — 124.0 4-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SUPER FORTUNE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with SOLID SHALAA second and PULSAR STRIDER third. The 2.0 favourite EXCELLENT FIGHTER finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER FORTUNE—2. SOLID SHALAA+0.75L3. PULSAR STRIDER+1L4. EXCELLENT FIGHTER+2L6. TORONADO PHANTOM+4.25L8. KEEP YOU WARM+4.75L9. AORAKI SUMMIT+5.25L10. STREET SCREAM+6L11. MARK THE MOMENT+7.75L12. KOKUSHI MUSOU+13L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick EXCELLENT FIGHTER (34.4%) finished 4th — the winner SUPER FORTUNE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 EXCELLENT FIGHTER 34.4% 2.91 4
2 0 MARK THE MOMENT 20.9% 4.78 11
3 0 PULSAR STRIDER 12.1% 8.26 3
4 0 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 8.3% 12.01 —
5 0 SOLID SHALAA 5.1% 19.64 2
6 0 TORONADO PHANTOM 4.6% 21.71 6
7 0 STREET SCREAM 4.4% 22.99 10
8 0 SUPER FORTUNE 3.2% 31.36 1
9 0 AORAKI SUMMIT 2.6% 39.16 9
10 0 KEEP YOU WARM 1.6% 62.30 8
11 0 KOKUSHI MUSOU 1.6% 63.79 12
12 0 ALL ARE MINE 1.3% 76.25 —
EXCELLENT FIGHTERMARK THE MOMENTPULSAR STRIDERA AMERIC TE SPECSOSOLID SHALAATORONADO PHANTOMSTREET SCREAMSUPER FORTUNE — wonAORAKI SUMMITKEEP YOU WARMKOKUSHI MUSOUALL ARE MINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 228.5

PLACE

6 23.5

7 51

12 38

QUINELLA

7,12 2,352.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 265

6,12 217.5

7,12 526

FORECAST

7,12 5,384

TIERCE

7,12,6 47,310

TRIO

6,7,12 5,422

FIRST 4

4,6,7,12 2,296

QUARTET

7,12,6,4 125,419

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 54.5

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,6/6,7,12 156,372

5TH DOUBLE

3/7 734

3/12 56

TRIPLE TRIO

2,6,9/1,3,6/6,7,12 1,706,711

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,6,9/1,3,6/Any Combination 443