沙田 · 2024-03-10
第 6場
2024-03-10沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由H Bowman策騎、K W Lui訓練的PATCH OF THETA勝出，贏出1-1/2。VOYAGE SAMURAI獲得亞軍；GOLDEN RISE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | PATCH OF THETA 後段發力 H/XB 1.22.27 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · K W Lui | H Bowman | K W Lui | 4 | 2.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | VOYAGE SAMURAI 早段領放 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 6 | 7.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | GOLDEN RISE 後段發力 J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 5 | 4.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | ARIEL CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 7 | 7.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | HAPPY DAILY 後段發力 CP2/TT Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 12 | 29.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 14 | URBAN TRIUMPH 後段發力 CP/H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 3 | 95.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | SMILING COLLECTOR 後段發力 XB L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 8 | 16.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | FOREMOST TEDDY B/TT B Thompson · C S Shum | B Thompson | C S Shum | 11 | 236.0 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | MASTER TORNADO PC/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 10 | 26.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | FOREVER CHARM 後段發力 TT A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 14 | 53.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | SMART FOLKS B/SR/H1 A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 2 | 81.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | RIVER VIEWS C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 21.0 | 10 |
| 13 | 5 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B A Atzeni · K L Man | A Atzeni | K L Man | 13 | 95.0 | 11-1/2 |
| — | 12 | SHINKANSEN H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | PATCH OF THETA | 22.3% | 4.49 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | VOYAGE SAMURAI | 16.3% | 6.12 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | GOLDEN RISE | 16.2% | 6.18 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | ARIEL | 11.7% | 8.51 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | RIVER VIEWS | 11.1% | 9.02 | 12 |
| 6 | 8 | MASTER TORNADO | 6.3% | 15.91 | 9 |
| 7 | 10 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 4.8% | 20.80 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 3.8% | 26.16 | 13 |
| 9 | 6 | HAPPY DAILY | 3.2% | 31.55 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | FOREVER CHARM | 1.7% | 58.49 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | SMART FOLKS | 1.0% | 101.05 | 11 |
| 12 | 14 | URBAN TRIUMPH | 0.8% | 118.23 | 6 |
| 13 | 9 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 0.8% | 132.03 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 20
PLACE
2 22
3 15.5
7 11
QUINELLA
2,7 85
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 48
2,7 36
3,7 20.5
FORECAST
7,2 124
TIERCE
7,2,3 282
TRIO
2,3,7 76
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 102
QUARTET
7,2,3,4 1,100
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,8/2,3,7,12 2,251
5TH DOUBLE
1/2 22.5
1/7,12 32.5
TRIPLE TRIO
3,5,6/1,2,8/2,3,7,12 69,470
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,5,6/1,2,8/Any Combination 1,389