沙田 · 2024-03-10
第 4場
2024-03-10沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Atzeni策騎、P C Ng訓練的AEROINVINCIBLE勝出，贏出1-1/2。DREAM PURSUER獲得亞軍；ALL RICHES獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AEROINVINCIBLE 後段發力 SR 1.22.30 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 1 | 2.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | DREAM PURSUER 後段發力 B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 9 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | ALL RICHES 早段領放 CP H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 8 | 6.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | GOLDEN SAMURAI 後段發力 B/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 13 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | AMAZING RUN CP Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 12 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | SEIZING THE MOMENT 後段發力 B J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 10 | 5.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | STAR LINE B H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 3 | 13.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | SILVER DESTINY TT K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 2 | 9.6 | 9 |
| 9 | 14 | WOODFIRE CHAMP 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 11 | 35.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | KINGLY DEMEANOR B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 14 | 202.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | AMAZINGTEAMWORK 後段發力 TT L Ferraris · W K Mo | L Ferraris | W K Mo | 5 | 250.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | C P ONE TT1 K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 7 | 128.0 | 10 |
| 13 | 8 | FAIRY HORSE H/TT B Thompson · C Fownes | B Thompson | C Fownes | 4 | 212.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 13 | PATCH OF WATCH SR Y L Chung · K H Ting | Y L Chung | K H Ting | 6 | 141.0 | 13-1/4 |
| — | 0 | BALLISTIC WIN C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AEROINVINCIBLE | 24.4% | 4.09 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | AMAZING RUN | 20.1% | 4.98 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | SEIZING THE MOMENT | 11.4% | 8.80 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | SILVER DESTINY | 10.6% | 9.44 | 8 |
| 5 | 6 | ALL RICHES | 8.1% | 12.35 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | DREAM PURSUER | 5.1% | 19.70 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | GOLDEN SAMURAI | 5.0% | 20.07 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | STAR LINE | 4.8% | 21.00 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | C P ONE | 3.8% | 26.41 | 12 |
| 10 | 14 | WOODFIRE CHAMP | 3.1% | 32.37 | 9 |
| 11 | 13 | PATCH OF WATCH | 1.3% | 79.75 | 14 |
| 12 | 10 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 0.9% | 106.33 | 10 |
| 13 | 8 | FAIRY HORSE | 0.9% | 111.87 | 13 |
| 14 | 12 | AMAZINGTEAMWORK | 0.7% | 153.37 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 23.5
PLACE
3 50
5 13
6 20.5
QUINELLA
3,5 342
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 112
3,6 147.5
5,6 36
FORECAST
5,3 496
TIERCE
5,3,6 1,912
TRIO
3,5,6 415
FIRST 4
3,5,6,11 930
QUARTET
5,3,6,11 17,076
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,10/3,5,6 7,170
3RD DOUBLE
10/3 253
10/5 224